Mitch McConnell has not cast a Senate vote since June 11, 2026, after a June 14 fall that led to hospitalization for pneumonia and mobility complications tied to childhood polio. His office confirmed ongoing intensive physical therapy following an August 6 discharge from rehab, with work limited to home during the Senate recess. These factors, combined with his February 2025 retirement announcement and term ending in January 2027, have kept him absent from the chamber through mid-August. Traders assign 71.5% implied probability to "No" by September 30, reflecting the extended recovery timeline and lack of clearance for floor activity.