Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain in office past August 31 because the remaining timeframe is too short for any constitutional removal process to conclude. Impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or Senate confirmation actions require extended committee review, floor votes, and bipartisan support that historical patterns show cannot occur within weeks. No active legislative holds, special counsel developments, or announced health crises have emerged to alter this timeline. While acute medical events, sudden resignation announcements, or unforeseen legal rulings could theoretically intervene before the deadline, the market consensus reflects broad agreement that such scenarios lack sufficient momentum to overcome the structural barriers in the narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$1,492,482 Vol.
$1,492,482 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$1,492,482 Vol.
$1,492,482 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain in office past August 31 because the remaining timeframe is too short for any constitutional removal process to conclude. Impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or Senate confirmation actions require extended committee review, floor votes, and bipartisan support that historical patterns show cannot occur within weeks. No active legislative holds, special counsel developments, or announced health crises have emerged to alter this timeline. While acute medical events, sudden resignation announcements, or unforeseen legal rulings could theoretically intervene before the deadline, the market consensus reflects broad agreement that such scenarios lack sufficient momentum to overcome the structural barriers in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,492,482End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain in office past August 31 because the remaining timeframe is too short for any constitutional removal process to conclude. Impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or Senate confirmation actions require extended committee review, floor votes, and bipartisan support that historical patterns show cannot occur within weeks. No active legislative holds, special counsel developments, or announced health crises have emerged to alter this timeline. While acute medical events, sudden resignation announcements, or unforeseen legal rulings could theoretically intervene before the deadline, the market consensus reflects broad agreement that such scenarios lack sufficient momentum to overcome the structural barriers in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,492,482End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain in office past August 31 because the remaining timeframe is too short for any constitutional removal process to conclude. Impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or Senate confirmation actions require extended committee review, floor votes, and bipartisan support that historical patterns show cannot occur within weeks. No active legislative holds, special counsel developments, or announced health crises have emerged to alter this timeline. While acute medical events, sudden resignation announcements, or unforeseen legal rulings could theoretically intervene before the deadline, the market consensus reflects broad agreement that such scenarios lack sufficient momentum to overcome the structural barriers in the narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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