Mitch McConnell has missed every Senate floor vote since June 11, 2026, after hospitalization for a fall and subsequent rehabilitation. His office has stated he is not medically cleared to resume duties, and he continues intensive physical therapy at age 84 with a documented history of mobility challenges. The Senate calendar features limited floor activity ahead of the August recess, further reducing opportunities for in-person participation before the August 31 deadline. Traders assign a 99.9% probability to “No” based on this extended absence. The primary variables that could still shift the outcome are an unusually swift medical clearance combined with an unscheduled or extended Senate session in the final two weeks of August.