Recent forecasts for Wuhan's overnight low on September 9 center on 19–21°C, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler continental air behind a weakening high-pressure system, with model runs showing highs dropping to 28–30°C and sustained breezes of 10–15 km/h limiting radiative cooling. Historical early-September climatology averages 20–22°C lows, providing context for the tight clustering around 20–22°C outcomes. Minor divergences among global and regional models—stemming from variable cloud cover and exact wind timing—create the balanced market-implied odds, with traders assigning highest probability to 22°C amid uncertainty over whether insulation from partial cloudiness will hold temperatures slightly above or allow brief dips near 19–20°C before sunrise. Updated model guidance and observational data from Chinese meteorological stations over the next 12–24 hours represent the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wuhan on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on September 9?
22°C 36%
21°C 27%
20°C 25%
23°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
18°C or below
6%
19°C
13%
20°C
25%
21°C
27%
22°C
36%
23°C
22%
24°C
9%
25°C
7%
26°C
7%
27°C
8%
28°C or higher
1%
22°C 36%
21°C 27%
20°C 25%
23°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
18°C or below
$35 Vol.
6%
19°C
$0 Vol.
13%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
36%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
9%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C
$43 Vol.
7%
27°C
$112 Vol.
8%
28°C or higher
$37 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Wuhan's overnight low on September 9 center on 19–21°C, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler continental air behind a weakening high-pressure system, with model runs showing highs dropping to 28–30°C and sustained breezes of 10–15 km/h limiting radiative cooling. Historical early-September climatology averages 20–22°C lows, providing context for the tight clustering around 20–22°C outcomes. Minor divergences among global and regional models—stemming from variable cloud cover and exact wind timing—create the balanced market-implied odds, with traders assigning highest probability to 22°C amid uncertainty over whether insulation from partial cloudiness will hold temperatures slightly above or allow brief dips near 19–20°C before sunrise. Updated model guidance and observational data from Chinese meteorological stations over the next 12–24 hours represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$227End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Wuhan's overnight low on September 9 center on 19–21°C, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler continental air behind a weakening high-pressure system, with model runs showing highs dropping to 28–30°C and sustained breezes of 10–15 km/h limiting radiative cooling. Historical early-September climatology averages 20–22°C lows, providing context for the tight clustering around 20–22°C outcomes. Minor divergences among global and regional models—stemming from variable cloud cover and exact wind timing—create the balanced market-implied odds, with traders assigning highest probability to 22°C amid uncertainty over whether insulation from partial cloudiness will hold temperatures slightly above or allow brief dips near 19–20°C before sunrise. Updated model guidance and observational data from Chinese meteorological stations over the next 12–24 hours represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$227End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Wuhan's overnight low on September 9 center on 19–21°C, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler continental air behind a weakening high-pressure system, with model runs showing highs dropping to 28–30°C and sustained breezes of 10–15 km/h limiting radiative cooling. Historical early-September climatology averages 20–22°C lows, providing context for the tight clustering around 20–22°C outcomes. Minor divergences among global and regional models—stemming from variable cloud cover and exact wind timing—create the balanced market-implied odds, with traders assigning highest probability to 22°C amid uncertainty over whether insulation from partial cloudiness will hold temperatures slightly above or allow brief dips near 19–20°C before sunrise. Updated model guidance and observational data from Chinese meteorological stations over the next 12–24 hours represent the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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