Current short-term forecasts for Wellington indicate a minimum temperature on September 9 most likely in the 6–8°C range, shaped by springtime southerly airflow, variable cloud cover, and overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies typical of the region's marine climate. Model consensus from agencies like MetService shows daytime highs near 13–14°C with light to moderate winds, while historical September baselines place average lows around 7–9°C. Close market-implied odds reflect genuine uncertainty in exact minimums, driven by small differences in wind mixing, dew point, and potential for clearer conditions that enhance cooling versus any passing cloud or frontal influence. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
6°C 28%
7°C 28%
8°C 27%
5°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
2°C or below
7%
3°C
6%
4°C
25%
5°C
25%
6°C
28%
7°C
28%
8°C
27%
9°C
3%
10°C
5%
11°C
1%
12°C or higher
8%
6°C 28%
7°C 28%
8°C 27%
5°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
2°C or below
$25 Vol.
7%
3°C
$123 Vol.
6%
4°C
$42 Vol.
25%
5°C
$0 Vol.
25%
6°C
$40 Vol.
28%
7°C
$0 Vol.
28%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$12 Vol.
3%
10°C
$25 Vol.
5%
11°C
$12 Vol.
1%
12°C or higher
$12 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts for Wellington indicate a minimum temperature on September 9 most likely in the 6–8°C range, shaped by springtime southerly airflow, variable cloud cover, and overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies typical of the region's marine climate. Model consensus from agencies like MetService shows daytime highs near 13–14°C with light to moderate winds, while historical September baselines place average lows around 7–9°C. Close market-implied odds reflect genuine uncertainty in exact minimums, driven by small differences in wind mixing, dew point, and potential for clearer conditions that enhance cooling versus any passing cloud or frontal influence. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$291End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts for Wellington indicate a minimum temperature on September 9 most likely in the 6–8°C range, shaped by springtime southerly airflow, variable cloud cover, and overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies typical of the region's marine climate. Model consensus from agencies like MetService shows daytime highs near 13–14°C with light to moderate winds, while historical September baselines place average lows around 7–9°C. Close market-implied odds reflect genuine uncertainty in exact minimums, driven by small differences in wind mixing, dew point, and potential for clearer conditions that enhance cooling versus any passing cloud or frontal influence. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$291End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-term forecasts for Wellington indicate a minimum temperature on September 9 most likely in the 6–8°C range, shaped by springtime southerly airflow, variable cloud cover, and overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies typical of the region's marine climate. Model consensus from agencies like MetService shows daytime highs near 13–14°C with light to moderate winds, while historical September baselines place average lows around 7–9°C. Close market-implied odds reflect genuine uncertainty in exact minimums, driven by small differences in wind mixing, dew point, and potential for clearer conditions that enhance cooling versus any passing cloud or frontal influence. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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