Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model runs indicate a mainly clear night over Toronto on September 7, supporting overnight lows near the climatological average of 15.4 °C. Light southerly winds and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius limit further radiational cooling, keeping the minimum temperature most likely between 14 °C and 15 °C. Recent high-resolution guidance shows only modest spread, with no strong cold-air advection or cloud cover expected to alter the outcome materially before midnight. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability to these two bins, reflecting both the narrow forecast envelope and the historical precedent that early-September minima in the city rarely deviate more than 2–3 °C from the long-term norm under similar synoptic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 7?
15°C 99%
13°C 7%
14°C 6%
12°C 4%
$1,312 Vol.
$1,312 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
10°C or below
2%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
7%
14°C
6%
15°C
99%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 99%
13°C 7%
14°C 6%
12°C 4%
$1,312 Vol.
$1,312 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
10°C or below
$80 Vol.
2%
11°C
$65 Vol.
1%
12°C
$25 Vol.
4%
13°C
$25 Vol.
7%
14°C
$50 Vol.
6%
15°C
$425 Vol.
99%
16°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$214 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$70 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model runs indicate a mainly clear night over Toronto on September 7, supporting overnight lows near the climatological average of 15.4 °C. Light southerly winds and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius limit further radiational cooling, keeping the minimum temperature most likely between 14 °C and 15 °C. Recent high-resolution guidance shows only modest spread, with no strong cold-air advection or cloud cover expected to alter the outcome materially before midnight. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability to these two bins, reflecting both the narrow forecast envelope and the historical precedent that early-September minima in the city rarely deviate more than 2–3 °C from the long-term norm under similar synoptic conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,312End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model runs indicate a mainly clear night over Toronto on September 7, supporting overnight lows near the climatological average of 15.4 °C. Light southerly winds and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius limit further radiational cooling, keeping the minimum temperature most likely between 14 °C and 15 °C. Recent high-resolution guidance shows only modest spread, with no strong cold-air advection or cloud cover expected to alter the outcome materially before midnight. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability to these two bins, reflecting both the narrow forecast envelope and the historical precedent that early-September minima in the city rarely deviate more than 2–3 °C from the long-term norm under similar synoptic conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,312End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model runs indicate a mainly clear night over Toronto on September 7, supporting overnight lows near the climatological average of 15.4 °C. Light southerly winds and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius limit further radiational cooling, keeping the minimum temperature most likely between 14 °C and 15 °C. Recent high-resolution guidance shows only modest spread, with no strong cold-air advection or cloud cover expected to alter the outcome materially before midnight. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability to these two bins, reflecting both the narrow forecast envelope and the historical precedent that early-September minima in the city rarely deviate more than 2–3 °C from the long-term norm under similar synoptic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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