Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show the primary driver of market odds as uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under increasing northerly flow and variable cloud cover ahead of a frontal system. Minimum temperatures near Helsinki are projected in the 6–9°C range, with clearer periods allowing greater surface heat loss while showers and higher humidity limit drops. Traders assign notable probability to sub-6°C outcomes due to model spread on boundary-layer stability and wind speeds, consistent with typical early-autumn variability in the Baltic region where historical September minima average near 8°C. Updated model runs and official FMI guidance overnight will likely refine resolution criteria before the 24-hour period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on September 23?
2°C or below 70%
7°C 26%
5°C 21%
4°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
2°C or below
70%
3°C
18%
4°C
20%
5°C
21%
6°C
28%
7°C
26%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C or higher
<1%
2°C or below 70%
7°C 26%
5°C 21%
4°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
2°C or below
$100 Vol.
70%
3°C
$40 Vol.
18%
4°C
$8 Vol.
20%
5°C
$0 Vol.
21%
6°C
$41 Vol.
28%
7°C
$27 Vol.
26%
8°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
12°C or higher
$315 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show the primary driver of market odds as uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under increasing northerly flow and variable cloud cover ahead of a frontal system. Minimum temperatures near Helsinki are projected in the 6–9°C range, with clearer periods allowing greater surface heat loss while showers and higher humidity limit drops. Traders assign notable probability to sub-6°C outcomes due to model spread on boundary-layer stability and wind speeds, consistent with typical early-autumn variability in the Baltic region where historical September minima average near 8°C. Updated model runs and official FMI guidance overnight will likely refine resolution criteria before the 24-hour period closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$766End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show the primary driver of market odds as uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under increasing northerly flow and variable cloud cover ahead of a frontal system. Minimum temperatures near Helsinki are projected in the 6–9°C range, with clearer periods allowing greater surface heat loss while showers and higher humidity limit drops. Traders assign notable probability to sub-6°C outcomes due to model spread on boundary-layer stability and wind speeds, consistent with typical early-autumn variability in the Baltic region where historical September minima average near 8°C. Updated model runs and official FMI guidance overnight will likely refine resolution criteria before the 24-hour period closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$766End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show the primary driver of market odds as uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under increasing northerly flow and variable cloud cover ahead of a frontal system. Minimum temperatures near Helsinki are projected in the 6–9°C range, with clearer periods allowing greater surface heat loss while showers and higher humidity limit drops. Traders assign notable probability to sub-6°C outcomes due to model spread on boundary-layer stability and wind speeds, consistent with typical early-autumn variability in the Baltic region where historical September minima average near 8°C. Updated model runs and official FMI guidance overnight will likely refine resolution criteria before the 24-hour period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions