Recent National Weather Service guidance and model consensus indicate a warm southerly flow will limit overnight radiative cooling for Chicago on September 8, supporting a minimum near 70–74°F amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and a 40–50% chance of showers after midnight. Elevated dew points near 60°F and light southeast winds further suppress typical September cooling rates, shifting probabilities toward the 68–73°F range despite historical averages near 62°F. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight sensitivity to exact cloud timing and precipitation onset, keeping 62–67°F bins competitive among traders. Updated NWS point forecasts and 00Z model cycles expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 8?
72-73°F 43%
62-63°F 28%
64-65°F 27%
66-67°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
23%
62-63°F
28%
64-65°F
27%
66-67°F
27%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
23%
72-73°F
43%
74-75°F
1%
76°F or higher
1%
72-73°F 43%
62-63°F 28%
64-65°F 27%
66-67°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
57°F or below
$207 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$44 Vol.
3%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
23%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
28%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
27%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
27%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
26%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
23%
72-73°F
$25 Vol.
43%
74-75°F
$24 Vol.
1%
76°F or higher
$229 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and model consensus indicate a warm southerly flow will limit overnight radiative cooling for Chicago on September 8, supporting a minimum near 70–74°F amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and a 40–50% chance of showers after midnight. Elevated dew points near 60°F and light southeast winds further suppress typical September cooling rates, shifting probabilities toward the 68–73°F range despite historical averages near 62°F. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight sensitivity to exact cloud timing and precipitation onset, keeping 62–67°F bins competitive among traders. Updated NWS point forecasts and 00Z model cycles expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$529End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and model consensus indicate a warm southerly flow will limit overnight radiative cooling for Chicago on September 8, supporting a minimum near 70–74°F amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and a 40–50% chance of showers after midnight. Elevated dew points near 60°F and light southeast winds further suppress typical September cooling rates, shifting probabilities toward the 68–73°F range despite historical averages near 62°F. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight sensitivity to exact cloud timing and precipitation onset, keeping 62–67°F bins competitive among traders. Updated NWS point forecasts and 00Z model cycles expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$529End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and model consensus indicate a warm southerly flow will limit overnight radiative cooling for Chicago on September 8, supporting a minimum near 70–74°F amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and a 40–50% chance of showers after midnight. Elevated dew points near 60°F and light southeast winds further suppress typical September cooling rates, shifting probabilities toward the 68–73°F range despite historical averages near 62°F. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight sensitivity to exact cloud timing and precipitation onset, keeping 62–67°F bins competitive among traders. Updated NWS point forecasts and 00Z model cycles expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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