Recent forecasts from NOAA and regional models indicate a stable high-pressure system with persistent easterly to northeasterly flow off Lake Michigan, keeping Chicago's minimum temperature on September 24 in the mid-to-upper 50s°F. This pattern, following several days of cool, cloudy conditions with highs in the low-to-mid 60s, supports the market's clustered probabilities around 56–59°F ranges while capping upside for warmer outcomes above 60°F. Historical September averages near 55°F provide context, though current steering and minimal diurnal mixing reduce the chance of significant overnight drops below 55°F. Updated model guidance through September 23 will refine exact thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 24?
47°F or below 91%
66°F or higher 45%
56-57°F 42%
50-51°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
47°F or below
91%
48-49°F
38%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
39%
54-55°F
39%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
37%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
39%
66°F or higher
45%
47°F or below 91%
66°F or higher 45%
56-57°F 42%
50-51°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Vol.
91%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
38%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
39%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
39%
56-57°F
$50 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$19 Vol.
37%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
39%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
39%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA and regional models indicate a stable high-pressure system with persistent easterly to northeasterly flow off Lake Michigan, keeping Chicago's minimum temperature on September 24 in the mid-to-upper 50s°F. This pattern, following several days of cool, cloudy conditions with highs in the low-to-mid 60s, supports the market's clustered probabilities around 56–59°F ranges while capping upside for warmer outcomes above 60°F. Historical September averages near 55°F provide context, though current steering and minimal diurnal mixing reduce the chance of significant overnight drops below 55°F. Updated model guidance through September 23 will refine exact thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$69End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA and regional models indicate a stable high-pressure system with persistent easterly to northeasterly flow off Lake Michigan, keeping Chicago's minimum temperature on September 24 in the mid-to-upper 50s°F. This pattern, following several days of cool, cloudy conditions with highs in the low-to-mid 60s, supports the market's clustered probabilities around 56–59°F ranges while capping upside for warmer outcomes above 60°F. Historical September averages near 55°F provide context, though current steering and minimal diurnal mixing reduce the chance of significant overnight drops below 55°F. Updated model guidance through September 23 will refine exact thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$69End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NOAA and regional models indicate a stable high-pressure system with persistent easterly to northeasterly flow off Lake Michigan, keeping Chicago's minimum temperature on September 24 in the mid-to-upper 50s°F. This pattern, following several days of cool, cloudy conditions with highs in the low-to-mid 60s, supports the market's clustered probabilities around 56–59°F ranges while capping upside for warmer outcomes above 60°F. Historical September averages near 55°F provide context, though current steering and minimal diurnal mixing reduce the chance of significant overnight drops below 55°F. Updated model guidance through September 23 will refine exact thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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