Current forecast models indicate a low near 15°C for Cape Town on September 9 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, yet market odds remain nearly even between 20°C or higher (40.0%) and 10°C or below (39.5%). Primary drivers include variable radiative cooling overnight, with clear conditions and light winds potentially allowing temperatures to drop further than the 14–16°C range suggested by recent runs, versus warmer advection from the Atlantic moderating the minimum. September climatology shows typical overnight lows of 11–12°C, and recent observations confirm mild conditions with limited cloud cover. Traders monitor updated model outputs and local wind shifts ahead of resolution, as small changes in boundary-layer stability can shift the exact minimum by several degrees.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 9?
10°C or below 64%
20°C or higher 64%
14°C 30%
13°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
10°C or below
64%
11°C
22%
12°C
26%
13°C
29%
14°C
30%
15°C
29%
16°C
23%
17°C
23%
18°C
7%
19°C
7%
20°C or higher
64%
10°C or below 64%
20°C or higher 64%
14°C 30%
13°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
10°C or below
$25 Vol.
64%
11°C
$6 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
29%
14°C
$0 Vol.
30%
15°C
$0 Vol.
29%
16°C
$0 Vol.
23%
17°C
$0 Vol.
23%
18°C
$25 Vol.
7%
19°C
$25 Vol.
7%
20°C or higher
$12 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models indicate a low near 15°C for Cape Town on September 9 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, yet market odds remain nearly even between 20°C or higher (40.0%) and 10°C or below (39.5%). Primary drivers include variable radiative cooling overnight, with clear conditions and light winds potentially allowing temperatures to drop further than the 14–16°C range suggested by recent runs, versus warmer advection from the Atlantic moderating the minimum. September climatology shows typical overnight lows of 11–12°C, and recent observations confirm mild conditions with limited cloud cover. Traders monitor updated model outputs and local wind shifts ahead of resolution, as small changes in boundary-layer stability can shift the exact minimum by several degrees.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$92End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models indicate a low near 15°C for Cape Town on September 9 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, yet market odds remain nearly even between 20°C or higher (40.0%) and 10°C or below (39.5%). Primary drivers include variable radiative cooling overnight, with clear conditions and light winds potentially allowing temperatures to drop further than the 14–16°C range suggested by recent runs, versus warmer advection from the Atlantic moderating the minimum. September climatology shows typical overnight lows of 11–12°C, and recent observations confirm mild conditions with limited cloud cover. Traders monitor updated model outputs and local wind shifts ahead of resolution, as small changes in boundary-layer stability can shift the exact minimum by several degrees.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$92End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models indicate a low near 15°C for Cape Town on September 9 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, yet market odds remain nearly even between 20°C or higher (40.0%) and 10°C or below (39.5%). Primary drivers include variable radiative cooling overnight, with clear conditions and light winds potentially allowing temperatures to drop further than the 14–16°C range suggested by recent runs, versus warmer advection from the Atlantic moderating the minimum. September climatology shows typical overnight lows of 11–12°C, and recent observations confirm mild conditions with limited cloud cover. Traders monitor updated model outputs and local wind shifts ahead of resolution, as small changes in boundary-layer stability can shift the exact minimum by several degrees.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions