Divergent short-term forecast models for overnight minimum temperatures in Cape Town on September 8 create the near-even split between outcomes above 21°C and at or below 11°C. High-pressure ridging over the South Atlantic often moderates lows toward the mid-teens through subsidence warming, while any eastward-moving frontal system or stronger onshore flow from the cold Benguela Current can drop readings several degrees lower via cold-air advection. Local topography around Table Mountain adds microclimate variability that complicates model consensus. Traders weigh the latest runs from agencies such as the South African Weather Service against historical September climatology, where average minimums hover near 11–13°C. Fresh model updates expected overnight will likely shift implied probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 8?
11°C or below 72%
14°C 30%
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
11°C or below
72%
12°C
15%
13°C
26%
14°C
30%
15°C
30%
16°C
28%
17°C
26%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
11°C or below 72%
14°C 30%
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
11°C or below
$15 Vol.
72%
12°C
$15 Vol.
15%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$5 Vol.
30%
15°C
$5 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$399 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Divergent short-term forecast models for overnight minimum temperatures in Cape Town on September 8 create the near-even split between outcomes above 21°C and at or below 11°C. High-pressure ridging over the South Atlantic often moderates lows toward the mid-teens through subsidence warming, while any eastward-moving frontal system or stronger onshore flow from the cold Benguela Current can drop readings several degrees lower via cold-air advection. Local topography around Table Mountain adds microclimate variability that complicates model consensus. Traders weigh the latest runs from agencies such as the South African Weather Service against historical September climatology, where average minimums hover near 11–13°C. Fresh model updates expected overnight will likely shift implied probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 1:29 AM ET
Volume
$453End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 1:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Divergent short-term forecast models for overnight minimum temperatures in Cape Town on September 8 create the near-even split between outcomes above 21°C and at or below 11°C. High-pressure ridging over the South Atlantic often moderates lows toward the mid-teens through subsidence warming, while any eastward-moving frontal system or stronger onshore flow from the cold Benguela Current can drop readings several degrees lower via cold-air advection. Local topography around Table Mountain adds microclimate variability that complicates model consensus. Traders weigh the latest runs from agencies such as the South African Weather Service against historical September climatology, where average minimums hover near 11–13°C. Fresh model updates expected overnight will likely shift implied probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$453End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 1:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent short-term forecast models for overnight minimum temperatures in Cape Town on September 8 create the near-even split between outcomes above 21°C and at or below 11°C. High-pressure ridging over the South Atlantic often moderates lows toward the mid-teens through subsidence warming, while any eastward-moving frontal system or stronger onshore flow from the cold Benguela Current can drop readings several degrees lower via cold-air advection. Local topography around Table Mountain adds microclimate variability that complicates model consensus. Traders weigh the latest runs from agencies such as the South African Weather Service against historical September climatology, where average minimums hover near 11–13°C. Fresh model updates expected overnight will likely shift implied probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions