The closely matched probabilities around 20–26% for the 14–17°C range reflect substantial short-term forecast uncertainty for Cape Town’s minimum temperature on September 24. Springtime variability driven by shifting Atlantic high-pressure systems, possible weak cold fronts, and local orographic effects from Table Mountain creates a wide ensemble spread in global models. Traders weigh differences between deterministic runs and probabilistic outputs from agencies such as the South African Weather Service, noting how small changes in wind direction or cloud cover can shift overnight lows by several degrees. With resolution just two days away, fresh model updates and initial observational trends will likely narrow the distribution before markets settle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 24?
10°C or below 96%
20°C or higher 46%
15°C 40%
13°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
10°C or below
96%
11°C
16%
12°C
17%
13°C
38%
14°C
38%
15°C
40%
16°C
28%
17°C
21%
18°C
38%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
46%
10°C or below 96%
20°C or higher 46%
15°C 40%
13°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
96%
11°C
$0 Vol.
16%
12°C
$0 Vol.
17%
13°C
$0 Vol.
38%
14°C
$0 Vol.
38%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
38%
19°C
$0 Vol.
3%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities around 20–26% for the 14–17°C range reflect substantial short-term forecast uncertainty for Cape Town’s minimum temperature on September 24. Springtime variability driven by shifting Atlantic high-pressure systems, possible weak cold fronts, and local orographic effects from Table Mountain creates a wide ensemble spread in global models. Traders weigh differences between deterministic runs and probabilistic outputs from agencies such as the South African Weather Service, noting how small changes in wind direction or cloud cover can shift overnight lows by several degrees. With resolution just two days away, fresh model updates and initial observational trends will likely narrow the distribution before markets settle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities around 20–26% for the 14–17°C range reflect substantial short-term forecast uncertainty for Cape Town’s minimum temperature on September 24. Springtime variability driven by shifting Atlantic high-pressure systems, possible weak cold fronts, and local orographic effects from Table Mountain creates a wide ensemble spread in global models. Traders weigh differences between deterministic runs and probabilistic outputs from agencies such as the South African Weather Service, noting how small changes in wind direction or cloud cover can shift overnight lows by several degrees. With resolution just two days away, fresh model updates and initial observational trends will likely narrow the distribution before markets settle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around 20–26% for the 14–17°C range reflect substantial short-term forecast uncertainty for Cape Town’s minimum temperature on September 24. Springtime variability driven by shifting Atlantic high-pressure systems, possible weak cold fronts, and local orographic effects from Table Mountain creates a wide ensemble spread in global models. Traders weigh differences between deterministic runs and probabilistic outputs from agencies such as the South African Weather Service, noting how small changes in wind direction or cloud cover can shift overnight lows by several degrees. With resolution just two days away, fresh model updates and initial observational trends will likely narrow the distribution before markets settle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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