Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 maritime blockade declaration have kept war-risk premiums elevated and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, compressing Bab el-Mandeb daily transits to the 25–35 range in late August per MarineTraffic and Kpler data. Tanker volumes have fallen sharply while containership operators cautiously restore select Suez services, lifting weekly counts modestly to roughly 269 but leaving overall flows 40% below pre-crisis baselines. Market-implied odds cluster around 25–34 ships per day because sustained targeting of compliant tonnage and the September 22 MARAD advisory deadline continue to weigh on risk appetite, though any de-escalation or verified lull in strikes could support a modest rebound before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
30-34 27.3%
25-29 26%
<25 19.3%
35-39 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<25
19%
25-29
26%
30-34
27%
35-39
19%
40+
10%
30-34 27.3%
25-29 26%
<25 19.3%
35-39 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<25
$298 Vol.
19%
25-29
$1,010 Vol.
26%
30-34
$427 Vol.
27%
35-39
$247 Vol.
19%
40+
$132 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 maritime blockade declaration have kept war-risk premiums elevated and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, compressing Bab el-Mandeb daily transits to the 25–35 range in late August per MarineTraffic and Kpler data. Tanker volumes have fallen sharply while containership operators cautiously restore select Suez services, lifting weekly counts modestly to roughly 269 but leaving overall flows 40% below pre-crisis baselines. Market-implied odds cluster around 25–34 ships per day because sustained targeting of compliant tonnage and the September 22 MARAD advisory deadline continue to weigh on risk appetite, though any de-escalation or verified lull in strikes could support a modest rebound before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$2,115End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 maritime blockade declaration have kept war-risk premiums elevated and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, compressing Bab el-Mandeb daily transits to the 25–35 range in late August per MarineTraffic and Kpler data. Tanker volumes have fallen sharply while containership operators cautiously restore select Suez services, lifting weekly counts modestly to roughly 269 but leaving overall flows 40% below pre-crisis baselines. Market-implied odds cluster around 25–34 ships per day because sustained targeting of compliant tonnage and the September 22 MARAD advisory deadline continue to weigh on risk appetite, though any de-escalation or verified lull in strikes could support a modest rebound before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$2,115End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 maritime blockade declaration have kept war-risk premiums elevated and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, compressing Bab el-Mandeb daily transits to the 25–35 range in late August per MarineTraffic and Kpler data. Tanker volumes have fallen sharply while containership operators cautiously restore select Suez services, lifting weekly counts modestly to roughly 269 but leaving overall flows 40% below pre-crisis baselines. Market-implied odds cluster around 25–34 ships per day because sustained targeting of compliant tonnage and the September 22 MARAD advisory deadline continue to weigh on risk appetite, though any de-escalation or verified lull in strikes could support a modest rebound before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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