Recent Houthi seizures of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab have sharply curtailed vessel movements through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied distribution that places 210-229 total transits for the week of September 14 at 39% implied probability. Preliminary data showed crossings halving to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day, reflecting intensified control over approaches to this key Red Sea chokepoint amid broader Hormuz disruptions and Saudi rerouting pressures. Traders price in persistent but not total suppression of volumes, consistent with recent daily averages near 20-30 vessels and selective targeting of certain tonnage, while assigning lower odds to extremes below 170 or above 230. Escalating territorial gains raise risks of further declines, yet market consensus embeds expectations of partial stabilization as operators adapt with reroutes or risk premiums. Key near-term catalysts include any additional coastal advances or de-escalation signals that could shift weekly aggregates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
190-209 29%
170-189 28%
210-229 25%
<170 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<170
20%
170-189
28%
190-209
29%
210-229
25%
230+
20%
190-209 29%
170-189 28%
210-229 25%
<170 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$0 Vol.
20%
170-189
$0 Vol.
28%
190-209
$0 Vol.
29%
210-229
$0 Vol.
25%
230+
$0 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab have sharply curtailed vessel movements through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied distribution that places 210-229 total transits for the week of September 14 at 39% implied probability. Preliminary data showed crossings halving to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day, reflecting intensified control over approaches to this key Red Sea chokepoint amid broader Hormuz disruptions and Saudi rerouting pressures. Traders price in persistent but not total suppression of volumes, consistent with recent daily averages near 20-30 vessels and selective targeting of certain tonnage, while assigning lower odds to extremes below 170 or above 230. Escalating territorial gains raise risks of further declines, yet market consensus embeds expectations of partial stabilization as operators adapt with reroutes or risk premiums. Key near-term catalysts include any additional coastal advances or de-escalation signals that could shift weekly aggregates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab have sharply curtailed vessel movements through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied distribution that places 210-229 total transits for the week of September 14 at 39% implied probability. Preliminary data showed crossings halving to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day, reflecting intensified control over approaches to this key Red Sea chokepoint amid broader Hormuz disruptions and Saudi rerouting pressures. Traders price in persistent but not total suppression of volumes, consistent with recent daily averages near 20-30 vessels and selective targeting of certain tonnage, while assigning lower odds to extremes below 170 or above 230. Escalating territorial gains raise risks of further declines, yet market consensus embeds expectations of partial stabilization as operators adapt with reroutes or risk premiums. Key near-term catalysts include any additional coastal advances or de-escalation signals that could shift weekly aggregates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi seizures of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab have sharply curtailed vessel movements through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied distribution that places 210-229 total transits for the week of September 14 at 39% implied probability. Preliminary data showed crossings halving to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day, reflecting intensified control over approaches to this key Red Sea chokepoint amid broader Hormuz disruptions and Saudi rerouting pressures. Traders price in persistent but not total suppression of volumes, consistent with recent daily averages near 20-30 vessels and selective targeting of certain tonnage, while assigning lower odds to extremes below 170 or above 230. Escalating territorial gains raise risks of further declines, yet market consensus embeds expectations of partial stabilization as operators adapt with reroutes or risk premiums. Key near-term catalysts include any additional coastal advances or de-escalation signals that could shift weekly aggregates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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