**Forecast models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 8 most likely between 26–28°C, with southerly winds and partly cloudy skies creating the narrow spread between the leading 27°C and 28°C outcomes.** Current runs from GFS and other ensembles show afternoon highs near 26–27°C under moderate southerly flow that advects warmer air while limited cloud cover permits sufficient solar heating without full insolation. Slight differences in predicted timing of peak warmth, boundary-layer mixing, and localized cloud development produce the tight 46.5%–38.5% split in market-implied probabilities. Traders are weighting the consensus around the historical late-summer baseline for the region while monitoring the final model updates expected overnight for any shift in the thermal profile.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
27°C 48%
28°C 39%
26°C 10%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
10%
27°C
48%
28°C
39%
29°C
6%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 48%
28°C 39%
26°C 10%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
$137 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$290 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$433 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$598 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,537 Vol.
10%
27°C
$1,776 Vol.
48%
28°C
$1,492 Vol.
39%
29°C
$566 Vol.
6%
30°C
$342 Vol.
1%
31°C
$262 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 8 most likely between 26–28°C, with southerly winds and partly cloudy skies creating the narrow spread between the leading 27°C and 28°C outcomes.**
Current runs from GFS and other ensembles show afternoon highs near 26–27°C under moderate southerly flow that advects warmer air while limited cloud cover permits sufficient solar heating without full insolation. Slight differences in predicted timing of peak warmth, boundary-layer mixing, and localized cloud development produce the tight 46.5%–38.5% split in market-implied probabilities. Traders are weighting the consensus around the historical late-summer baseline for the region while monitoring the final model updates expected overnight for any shift in the thermal profile.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$8,858End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 8 most likely between 26–28°C, with southerly winds and partly cloudy skies creating the narrow spread between the leading 27°C and 28°C outcomes.**
Current runs from GFS and other ensembles show afternoon highs near 26–27°C under moderate southerly flow that advects warmer air while limited cloud cover permits sufficient solar heating without full insolation. Slight differences in predicted timing of peak warmth, boundary-layer mixing, and localized cloud development produce the tight 46.5%–38.5% split in market-implied probabilities. Traders are weighting the consensus around the historical late-summer baseline for the region while monitoring the final model updates expected overnight for any shift in the thermal profile.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,858End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 8 most likely between 26–28°C, with southerly winds and partly cloudy skies creating the narrow spread between the leading 27°C and 28°C outcomes.** Current runs from GFS and other ensembles show afternoon highs near 26–27°C under moderate southerly flow that advects warmer air while limited cloud cover permits sufficient solar heating without full insolation. Slight differences in predicted timing of peak warmth, boundary-layer mixing, and localized cloud development produce the tight 46.5%–38.5% split in market-implied probabilities. Traders are weighting the consensus around the historical late-summer baseline for the region while monitoring the final model updates expected overnight for any shift in the thermal profile.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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