Latest numerical weather prediction models, including ensemble runs, point to a peak temperature in Shenzhen on September 8 most likely reaching 33–34°C under partly cloudy conditions with light variable winds and moderate humidity. Subtle differences in simulated cloud cover and timing of any scattered afternoon convection create the narrow spread between these outcomes, as higher moisture or brief showers could cap the maximum near 32–33°C while clearer intervals allow brief spikes to 34°C. Market-implied probabilities, with 33°C and 34°C nearly tied, reflect traders’ weighting of short-range forecast consensus against historical September baselines around 31°C and the inherent uncertainty in high-resolution model guidance for subtropical urban heat islands. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning will refine these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
33°C 40%
34°C 38%
32°C 14%
35°C 9%
NEW
$13,040 Vol.
NEW
$13,040 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
14%
33°C
40%
34°C
38%
35°C
9%
36°C
3%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 40%
34°C 38%
32°C 14%
35°C 9%
NEW
$13,040 Vol.
NEW
$13,040 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
28°C or below
$778 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$999 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$635 Vol.
1%
31°C
$724 Vol.
3%
32°C
$910 Vol.
14%
33°C
$1,716 Vol.
40%
34°C
$2,040 Vol.
38%
35°C
$1,105 Vol.
9%
36°C
$980 Vol.
3%
37°C
$1,660 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$1,493 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including ensemble runs, point to a peak temperature in Shenzhen on September 8 most likely reaching 33–34°C under partly cloudy conditions with light variable winds and moderate humidity. Subtle differences in simulated cloud cover and timing of any scattered afternoon convection create the narrow spread between these outcomes, as higher moisture or brief showers could cap the maximum near 32–33°C while clearer intervals allow brief spikes to 34°C. Market-implied probabilities, with 33°C and 34°C nearly tied, reflect traders’ weighting of short-range forecast consensus against historical September baselines around 31°C and the inherent uncertainty in high-resolution model guidance for subtropical urban heat islands. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning will refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$13,040End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including ensemble runs, point to a peak temperature in Shenzhen on September 8 most likely reaching 33–34°C under partly cloudy conditions with light variable winds and moderate humidity. Subtle differences in simulated cloud cover and timing of any scattered afternoon convection create the narrow spread between these outcomes, as higher moisture or brief showers could cap the maximum near 32–33°C while clearer intervals allow brief spikes to 34°C. Market-implied probabilities, with 33°C and 34°C nearly tied, reflect traders’ weighting of short-range forecast consensus against historical September baselines around 31°C and the inherent uncertainty in high-resolution model guidance for subtropical urban heat islands. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning will refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,040End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including ensemble runs, point to a peak temperature in Shenzhen on September 8 most likely reaching 33–34°C under partly cloudy conditions with light variable winds and moderate humidity. Subtle differences in simulated cloud cover and timing of any scattered afternoon convection create the narrow spread between these outcomes, as higher moisture or brief showers could cap the maximum near 32–33°C while clearer intervals allow brief spikes to 34°C. Market-implied probabilities, with 33°C and 34°C nearly tied, reflect traders’ weighting of short-range forecast consensus against historical September baselines around 31°C and the inherent uncertainty in high-resolution model guidance for subtropical urban heat islands. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning will refine these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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