**Monsoon-driven cloud cover and elevated humidity from the Arabian Sea are the dominant factors capping Karachi's peak temperature on August 15 near 32°C.** Official forecasts from sources such as AccuWeather and the Pakistan Meteorological Department indicate daily highs of 31–34°C under mostly overcast skies with light showers or drizzle, consistent with typical late-monsoon conditions that reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Recent model consensus shows stable steering patterns with no strong heat-wave setup, keeping extremes above 34°C or below 31°C unlikely. These conditions align with the market's concentration of implied probability on 32°C (52.5%) and 33°C (25.5%), as traders weigh the narrow historical range for mid-August coastal maxima against any last-minute forecast shifts in cloud thickness or wind speed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on August 15?
Highest temperature in Karachi on August 15?
32°C 53%
33°C 25%
31°C 20%
30°C 5%
NEW
$11,048 Vol.
NEW
$11,048 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
5%
31°C
20%
32°C
53%
33°C
25%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 53%
33°C 25%
31°C 20%
30°C 5%
NEW
$11,048 Vol.
NEW
$11,048 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$205 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$448 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$791 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,279 Vol.
5%
31°C
$835 Vol.
20%
32°C
$3,633 Vol.
53%
33°C
$2,108 Vol.
25%
34°C
$548 Vol.
2%
35°C
$359 Vol.
1%
36°C
$642 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$199 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Monsoon-driven cloud cover and elevated humidity from the Arabian Sea are the dominant factors capping Karachi's peak temperature on August 15 near 32°C.** Official forecasts from sources such as AccuWeather and the Pakistan Meteorological Department indicate daily highs of 31–34°C under mostly overcast skies with light showers or drizzle, consistent with typical late-monsoon conditions that reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Recent model consensus shows stable steering patterns with no strong heat-wave setup, keeping extremes above 34°C or below 31°C unlikely. These conditions align with the market's concentration of implied probability on 32°C (52.5%) and 33°C (25.5%), as traders weigh the narrow historical range for mid-August coastal maxima against any last-minute forecast shifts in cloud thickness or wind speed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$11,048End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Monsoon-driven cloud cover and elevated humidity from the Arabian Sea are the dominant factors capping Karachi's peak temperature on August 15 near 32°C.** Official forecasts from sources such as AccuWeather and the Pakistan Meteorological Department indicate daily highs of 31–34°C under mostly overcast skies with light showers or drizzle, consistent with typical late-monsoon conditions that reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Recent model consensus shows stable steering patterns with no strong heat-wave setup, keeping extremes above 34°C or below 31°C unlikely. These conditions align with the market's concentration of implied probability on 32°C (52.5%) and 33°C (25.5%), as traders weigh the narrow historical range for mid-August coastal maxima against any last-minute forecast shifts in cloud thickness or wind speed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,048End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Monsoon-driven cloud cover and elevated humidity from the Arabian Sea are the dominant factors capping Karachi's peak temperature on August 15 near 32°C.** Official forecasts from sources such as AccuWeather and the Pakistan Meteorological Department indicate daily highs of 31–34°C under mostly overcast skies with light showers or drizzle, consistent with typical late-monsoon conditions that reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Recent model consensus shows stable steering patterns with no strong heat-wave setup, keeping extremes above 34°C or below 31°C unlikely. These conditions align with the market's concentration of implied probability on 32°C (52.5%) and 33°C (25.5%), as traders weigh the narrow historical range for mid-August coastal maxima against any last-minute forecast shifts in cloud thickness or wind speed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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