Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on August 21, reflecting converging forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, Met Office, and global models under stable high pressure, light northeast winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit peak heating. Daytime maxima are projected near 28–29°C but with observational data and recent model runs pointing to a recorded high at or below 27°C at official stations, consistent with climatological August norms of 27–30°C. Dew points around 19–21°C and minimal cloud cover further constrain intensification, while any late-day clearing or wind shifts could nudge readings toward 28°C. Market-implied probabilities incorporate these variables ahead of final official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
27°C 66%
28°C 22%
26°C 13%
25°C 2.9%
$13,055 Vol.
$13,055 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
13%
27°C
66%
28°C
22%
29°C
2%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 66%
28°C 22%
26°C 13%
25°C 2.9%
$13,055 Vol.
$13,055 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
$550 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$725 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$444 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$556 Vol.
3%
26°C
$4,956 Vol.
13%
27°C
$2,253 Vol.
66%
28°C
$1,313 Vol.
22%
29°C
$715 Vol.
2%
30°C
$581 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$625 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on August 21, reflecting converging forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, Met Office, and global models under stable high pressure, light northeast winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit peak heating. Daytime maxima are projected near 28–29°C but with observational data and recent model runs pointing to a recorded high at or below 27°C at official stations, consistent with climatological August norms of 27–30°C. Dew points around 19–21°C and minimal cloud cover further constrain intensification, while any late-day clearing or wind shifts could nudge readings toward 28°C. Market-implied probabilities incorporate these variables ahead of final official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$13,055End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on August 21, reflecting converging forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, Met Office, and global models under stable high pressure, light northeast winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit peak heating. Daytime maxima are projected near 28–29°C but with observational data and recent model runs pointing to a recorded high at or below 27°C at official stations, consistent with climatological August norms of 27–30°C. Dew points around 19–21°C and minimal cloud cover further constrain intensification, while any late-day clearing or wind shifts could nudge readings toward 28°C. Market-implied probabilities incorporate these variables ahead of final official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,055End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on August 21, reflecting converging forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, Met Office, and global models under stable high pressure, light northeast winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit peak heating. Daytime maxima are projected near 28–29°C but with observational data and recent model runs pointing to a recorded high at or below 27°C at official stations, consistent with climatological August norms of 27–30°C. Dew points around 19–21°C and minimal cloud cover further constrain intensification, while any late-day clearing or wind shifts could nudge readings toward 28°C. Market-implied probabilities incorporate these variables ahead of final official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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