Trader consensus around 21–23°C for Istanbul’s August 21 minimum reflects stable late-summer high pressure and clear skies that favor moderate nocturnal radiative cooling. Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and Met Office indicate daytime maxima near 28°C under light northeasterly flow, with overnight lows settling near 21°C amid typical 70–80% humidity and minimal cloud cover. Subtle differences among 20–23°C outcomes hinge on wind speed—calmer conditions near the Bosphorus enhance cooling while urban heat-island effects and any residual sea breeze keep readings slightly higher—plus small model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Historical August climatology shows average lows of 20–21°C, so current odds align with near-normal conditions absent incoming fronts or unusual humidity spikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
18°C 59%
19°C 59%
17°C or below 35%
23°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
17°C or below
35%
18°C
59%
19°C
59%
20°C
29%
21°C
34%
22°C
34%
23°C
35%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
1%
18°C 59%
19°C 59%
17°C or below 35%
23°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
17°C or below
$109 Vol.
35%
18°C
$173 Vol.
59%
19°C
$123 Vol.
59%
20°C
$177 Vol.
29%
21°C
$6 Vol.
34%
22°C
$16 Vol.
34%
23°C
$0 Vol.
35%
24°C
$227 Vol.
1%
25°C
$435 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$937 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$357 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 21–23°C for Istanbul’s August 21 minimum reflects stable late-summer high pressure and clear skies that favor moderate nocturnal radiative cooling. Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and Met Office indicate daytime maxima near 28°C under light northeasterly flow, with overnight lows settling near 21°C amid typical 70–80% humidity and minimal cloud cover. Subtle differences among 20–23°C outcomes hinge on wind speed—calmer conditions near the Bosphorus enhance cooling while urban heat-island effects and any residual sea breeze keep readings slightly higher—plus small model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Historical August climatology shows average lows of 20–21°C, so current odds align with near-normal conditions absent incoming fronts or unusual humidity spikes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$2,561End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 21–23°C for Istanbul’s August 21 minimum reflects stable late-summer high pressure and clear skies that favor moderate nocturnal radiative cooling. Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and Met Office indicate daytime maxima near 28°C under light northeasterly flow, with overnight lows settling near 21°C amid typical 70–80% humidity and minimal cloud cover. Subtle differences among 20–23°C outcomes hinge on wind speed—calmer conditions near the Bosphorus enhance cooling while urban heat-island effects and any residual sea breeze keep readings slightly higher—plus small model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Historical August climatology shows average lows of 20–21°C, so current odds align with near-normal conditions absent incoming fronts or unusual humidity spikes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,561End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 21–23°C for Istanbul’s August 21 minimum reflects stable late-summer high pressure and clear skies that favor moderate nocturnal radiative cooling. Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and Met Office indicate daytime maxima near 28°C under light northeasterly flow, with overnight lows settling near 21°C amid typical 70–80% humidity and minimal cloud cover. Subtle differences among 20–23°C outcomes hinge on wind speed—calmer conditions near the Bosphorus enhance cooling while urban heat-island effects and any residual sea breeze keep readings slightly higher—plus small model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Historical August climatology shows average lows of 20–21°C, so current odds align with near-normal conditions absent incoming fronts or unusual humidity spikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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