**Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a maximum of 33°C on September 8 under mainly fine skies with light winds and low rain probability, driving the 42.5% market-implied odds for that outcome.** Weak synoptic flow ahead of the northeast monsoon allows strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover, pushing temperatures above the September climatological average near 31°C. Model consensus and current observations support a peak in the low-to-mid 30s, but small differences in afternoon insolation, boundary-layer mixing, or localized sea-breeze effects could shift the recorded maximum between 32°C and 33°C—explaining the tight 34% probability on 32°C. Traders are weighting the authoritative HKO measurement criteria and the “very hot” advisory language, while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1°C this close to the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
33°C 43%
32°C 36%
34°C 15%
31°C 9%
NEW
$10,124 Vol.
NEW
$10,124 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
9%
32°C
36%
33°C
43%
34°C
15%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 43%
32°C 36%
34°C 15%
31°C 9%
NEW
$10,124 Vol.
NEW
$10,124 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
27°C or below
$395 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,059 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$385 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,109 Vol.
3%
31°C
$883 Vol.
9%
32°C
$1,004 Vol.
36%
33°C
$2,551 Vol.
43%
34°C
$1,667 Vol.
15%
35°C
$543 Vol.
1%
36°C
$308 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$221 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a maximum of 33°C on September 8 under mainly fine skies with light winds and low rain probability, driving the 42.5% market-implied odds for that outcome.**
Weak synoptic flow ahead of the northeast monsoon allows strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover, pushing temperatures above the September climatological average near 31°C. Model consensus and current observations support a peak in the low-to-mid 30s, but small differences in afternoon insolation, boundary-layer mixing, or localized sea-breeze effects could shift the recorded maximum between 32°C and 33°C—explaining the tight 34% probability on 32°C. Traders are weighting the authoritative HKO measurement criteria and the “very hot” advisory language, while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1°C this close to the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,124End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a maximum of 33°C on September 8 under mainly fine skies with light winds and low rain probability, driving the 42.5% market-implied odds for that outcome.**
Weak synoptic flow ahead of the northeast monsoon allows strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover, pushing temperatures above the September climatological average near 31°C. Model consensus and current observations support a peak in the low-to-mid 30s, but small differences in afternoon insolation, boundary-layer mixing, or localized sea-breeze effects could shift the recorded maximum between 32°C and 33°C—explaining the tight 34% probability on 32°C. Traders are weighting the authoritative HKO measurement criteria and the “very hot” advisory language, while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1°C this close to the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,124End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a maximum of 33°C on September 8 under mainly fine skies with light winds and low rain probability, driving the 42.5% market-implied odds for that outcome.** Weak synoptic flow ahead of the northeast monsoon allows strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover, pushing temperatures above the September climatological average near 31°C. Model consensus and current observations support a peak in the low-to-mid 30s, but small differences in afternoon insolation, boundary-layer mixing, or localized sea-breeze effects could shift the recorded maximum between 32°C and 33°C—explaining the tight 34% probability on 32°C. Traders are weighting the authoritative HKO measurement criteria and the “very hot” advisory language, while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1°C this close to the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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