Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to a cooler-than-average day in Amsterdam on September 9, with showers and northwest winds limiting daytime heating to support the market's tight clustering around 18°C (45.0% implied probability) over 19°C (35.5%). Persistent cloud cover, precipitation chances near 45-70%, and a shift from southerly to westerly flow are suppressing maximum temperatures below the early-September climatological normal of roughly 19-20°C. Ensemble spreads in timing and intensity of showers introduce the main uncertainty between these two leading outcomes, while lower probabilities for 17°C or 20°C reflect tail risks from forecast revisions ahead of final NHC-style updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 9?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 9?
18°C 45%
19°C 35%
17°C 9%
20°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
4%
17°C
9%
18°C
45%
19°C
35%
20°C
6%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
1%
18°C 45%
19°C 35%
17°C 9%
20°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
12°C or below
$114 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C
$195 Vol.
2%
16°C
$48 Vol.
4%
17°C
$253 Vol.
9%
18°C
$482 Vol.
45%
19°C
$214 Vol.
35%
20°C
$69 Vol.
6%
21°C
$15 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$72 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to a cooler-than-average day in Amsterdam on September 9, with showers and northwest winds limiting daytime heating to support the market's tight clustering around 18°C (45.0% implied probability) over 19°C (35.5%). Persistent cloud cover, precipitation chances near 45-70%, and a shift from southerly to westerly flow are suppressing maximum temperatures below the early-September climatological normal of roughly 19-20°C. Ensemble spreads in timing and intensity of showers introduce the main uncertainty between these two leading outcomes, while lower probabilities for 17°C or 20°C reflect tail risks from forecast revisions ahead of final NHC-style updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,501End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to a cooler-than-average day in Amsterdam on September 9, with showers and northwest winds limiting daytime heating to support the market's tight clustering around 18°C (45.0% implied probability) over 19°C (35.5%). Persistent cloud cover, precipitation chances near 45-70%, and a shift from southerly to westerly flow are suppressing maximum temperatures below the early-September climatological normal of roughly 19-20°C. Ensemble spreads in timing and intensity of showers introduce the main uncertainty between these two leading outcomes, while lower probabilities for 17°C or 20°C reflect tail risks from forecast revisions ahead of final NHC-style updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,501End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to a cooler-than-average day in Amsterdam on September 9, with showers and northwest winds limiting daytime heating to support the market's tight clustering around 18°C (45.0% implied probability) over 19°C (35.5%). Persistent cloud cover, precipitation chances near 45-70%, and a shift from southerly to westerly flow are suppressing maximum temperatures below the early-September climatological normal of roughly 19-20°C. Ensemble spreads in timing and intensity of showers introduce the main uncertainty between these two leading outcomes, while lower probabilities for 17°C or 20°C reflect tail risks from forecast revisions ahead of final NHC-style updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions