Skip to main content
icon for Generic Ballot polling on August 24?
Politics·Midterms

Generic Ballot polling on August 24?

icon for Generic Ballot polling on August 24?
Politics·Midterms

Generic Ballot polling on August 24?

Aug 24

Aug 24

Dems +6.6–6.7% 45%

Dems +7.0–7.1% 42%

Dems +6.8–6.9% 41%

Dems +6.4–6.5% 41%

Polymarket
NEW

Dems +6.6–6.7% 45%

Dems +7.0–7.1% 42%

Dems +6.8–6.9% 41%

Dems +6.4–6.5% 41%

Polymarket
NEW

Dems +7.2%+

$0 Vol.

12%

Dems +7.0–7.1%

$0 Vol.

42%

Dems +6.8–6.9%

$0 Vol.

41%

Dems +6.6–6.7%

$0 Vol.

45%

Dems +6.4–6.5%

$0 Vol.

41%

Dems +6.3% or lower

$0 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026. The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading. In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied. The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent generic congressional ballot averages from trackers including Nate Silver and Decision Desk HQ have stabilized in the Democrats +6 to +7 range, reflecting modest out-party gains typical for midterms under a Republican administration with approval near 45 percent. Fresh surveys through mid-August, such as those from YouGov/Economist and Reuters/Ipsos, show single-digit Democratic edges amid voter priorities on the economy and recent developments including renewed Iran tensions and higher gas prices that have reinforced the existing tilt. With polling volatility and sample variations keeping exact daily readings uncertain, trader consensus centers on outcomes near the current averages while assigning lower probability to sharper moves.

This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.

The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.

In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.

The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Volume
$0
End Date
Aug 24, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026. The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading. In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied. The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026. The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading. In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied. The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent generic congressional ballot averages from trackers including Nate Silver and Decision Desk HQ have stabilized in the Democrats +6 to +7 range, reflecting modest out-party gains typical for midterms under a Republican administration with approval near 45 percent. Fresh surveys through mid-August, such as those from YouGov/Economist and Reuters/Ipsos, show single-digit Democratic edges amid voter priorities on the economy and recent developments including renewed Iran tensions and higher gas prices that have reinforced the existing tilt. With polling volatility and sample variations keeping exact daily readings uncertain, trader consensus centers on outcomes near the current averages while assigning lower probability to sharper moves.

This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.

The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.

In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.

The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Volume
$0
End Date
Aug 24, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026. The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading. In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied. The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.

Related

icon for Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

37%
Up
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?

27%
icon for Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-01 House election by 50% or more?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-01 House election by 50% or more?

37%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Generic Ballot polling on August 24?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dems +6.6–6.7%" at 45%, followed by "Dems +7.0–7.1%" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Generic Ballot polling on August 24?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Generic Ballot polling on August 24?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Generic Ballot polling on August 24?" is "Dems +6.6–6.7%" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dems +7.0–7.1%" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Generic Ballot polling on August 24?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.