Recent shifts in nonpartisan ratings have tightened several 2026 Senate contests, with Cook Political Report listing four toss-ups and additional leans as of early August, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved North Carolina to Lean Democratic and Alaska plus Ohio to toss-up status on August 12. These changes reflect Democratic gains on the generic ballot of roughly six to seven points and stronger polling in battlegrounds such as North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, and Maine. Eleven retirements, including open seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio created by prior resignations, further shape candidate recruitment and fundraising dynamics. Traders focus on these roughly dozen battlegrounds because national midterm headwinds against the president’s party, combined with state-specific candidate quality and turnout patterns, determine which margins fall inside five percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$35,659 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
72%
Maine
69%
Nebraska
67%
Iowa
66%
Alaska
66%
Michigan
62%
Florida (Special)
59%
Ohio (Special)
57%
New Hampshire
45%
Minnesota
25%
North Carolina
24%
New Mexico
18%
Georgia
11%
Montana
4%
Colorado
3%
Virginia
2%
$35,659 Vol.
Texas
$2,200 Vol.
72%
Maine
$328 Vol.
69%
Nebraska
$2,487 Vol.
67%
Iowa
$2,777 Vol.
66%
Alaska
$1,447 Vol.
66%
Michigan
$1,415 Vol.
62%
Florida (Special)
$1,174 Vol.
59%
Ohio (Special)
$2,438 Vol.
57%
New Hampshire
$1,465 Vol.
45%
Minnesota
$6,000 Vol.
25%
North Carolina
$2,403 Vol.
24%
New Mexico
$5,982 Vol.
18%
Georgia
$671 Vol.
11%
Montana
$1,885 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$1,823 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$1,163 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent shifts in nonpartisan ratings have tightened several 2026 Senate contests, with Cook Political Report listing four toss-ups and additional leans as of early August, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved North Carolina to Lean Democratic and Alaska plus Ohio to toss-up status on August 12. These changes reflect Democratic gains on the generic ballot of roughly six to seven points and stronger polling in battlegrounds such as North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, and Maine. Eleven retirements, including open seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio created by prior resignations, further shape candidate recruitment and fundraising dynamics. Traders focus on these roughly dozen battlegrounds because national midterm headwinds against the president’s party, combined with state-specific candidate quality and turnout patterns, determine which margins fall inside five percent.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$35,659End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent shifts in nonpartisan ratings have tightened several 2026 Senate contests, with Cook Political Report listing four toss-ups and additional leans as of early August, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved North Carolina to Lean Democratic and Alaska plus Ohio to toss-up status on August 12. These changes reflect Democratic gains on the generic ballot of roughly six to seven points and stronger polling in battlegrounds such as North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, and Maine. Eleven retirements, including open seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio created by prior resignations, further shape candidate recruitment and fundraising dynamics. Traders focus on these roughly dozen battlegrounds because national midterm headwinds against the president’s party, combined with state-specific candidate quality and turnout patterns, determine which margins fall inside five percent.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$35,659End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent shifts in nonpartisan ratings have tightened several 2026 Senate contests, with Cook Political Report listing four toss-ups and additional leans as of early August, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved North Carolina to Lean Democratic and Alaska plus Ohio to toss-up status on August 12. These changes reflect Democratic gains on the generic ballot of roughly six to seven points and stronger polling in battlegrounds such as North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, and Maine. Eleven retirements, including open seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio created by prior resignations, further shape candidate recruitment and fundraising dynamics. Traders focus on these roughly dozen battlegrounds because national midterm headwinds against the president’s party, combined with state-specific candidate quality and turnout patterns, determine which margins fall inside five percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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