Aisha Wahab holds an 78% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff scheduled for August 18, 2026, driven by her commanding performance in the June special primary where she captured roughly 38-43% of the vote compared to Melissa Hernandez’s 17%. As the sitting state senator, Wahab benefits from greater name recognition, broader Democratic endorsements, and established fundraising in this heavily Democratic district vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in both the special and regular primaries. Recent complaints filed by Wahab alleging election interference have not shifted the market consensus, which continues to reflect the primary margin and limited remaining campaign window. The closely spaced dual runoffs for the seat further reinforce trader focus on Wahab’s frontrunner status ahead of the immediate vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Aisha Wahab
79%
Melissa Hernandez
16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Aisha Wahab
$5,406 Vol.
79%
Melissa Hernandez
$3,059 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 78% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff scheduled for August 18, 2026, driven by her commanding performance in the June special primary where she captured roughly 38-43% of the vote compared to Melissa Hernandez’s 17%. As the sitting state senator, Wahab benefits from greater name recognition, broader Democratic endorsements, and established fundraising in this heavily Democratic district vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in both the special and regular primaries. Recent complaints filed by Wahab alleging election interference have not shifted the market consensus, which continues to reflect the primary margin and limited remaining campaign window. The closely spaced dual runoffs for the seat further reinforce trader focus on Wahab’s frontrunner status ahead of the immediate vote.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
Volume
$8,466End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 78% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff scheduled for August 18, 2026, driven by her commanding performance in the June special primary where she captured roughly 38-43% of the vote compared to Melissa Hernandez’s 17%. As the sitting state senator, Wahab benefits from greater name recognition, broader Democratic endorsements, and established fundraising in this heavily Democratic district vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in both the special and regular primaries. Recent complaints filed by Wahab alleging election interference have not shifted the market consensus, which continues to reflect the primary margin and limited remaining campaign window. The closely spaced dual runoffs for the seat further reinforce trader focus on Wahab’s frontrunner status ahead of the immediate vote.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,466End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 78% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff scheduled for August 18, 2026, driven by her commanding performance in the June special primary where she captured roughly 38-43% of the vote compared to Melissa Hernandez’s 17%. As the sitting state senator, Wahab benefits from greater name recognition, broader Democratic endorsements, and established fundraising in this heavily Democratic district vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in both the special and regular primaries. Recent complaints filed by Wahab alleging election interference have not shifted the market consensus, which continues to reflect the primary margin and limited remaining campaign window. The closely spaced dual runoffs for the seat further reinforce trader focus on Wahab’s frontrunner status ahead of the immediate vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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