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Elections·US Election

Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?

icon for Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?
Elections·US Election

Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?

Mary Peltola 87%

Sen. Dan S. Sullivan 7.0%

Shirley Saucerman <1%

Richard Benedict Mayers <1%

Polymarket

$27,213 Vol.

Mary Peltola 87%

Sen. Dan S. Sullivan 7.0%

Shirley Saucerman <1%

Richard Benedict Mayers <1%

Polymarket

$27,213 Vol.

icon for Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola

$6,114 Vol.

87%

icon for Sen. Dan S. Sullivan

Sen. Dan S. Sullivan

$6,287 Vol.

7%

Shirley Saucerman

$1,141 Vol.

<1%

Richard Benedict Mayers

$947 Vol.

<1%

icon for Richard Grayson

Richard Grayson

$1,045 Vol.

<1%

Fred C. Grauberger

$1,442 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Leslie

David Leslie

$3,015 Vol.

<1%

Earl D. "Skip" Southworth

$969 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dustin Darden

Dustin Darden

$705 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carol Hafner

Carol Hafner

$752 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gerald L. Heikes

Gerald L. Heikes

$502 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dan J. Sullivan

Dan J. Sullivan

$1,493 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sid Hill

Sid Hill

$550 Vol.

<1%

icon for Scott Kohlhaas

Scott Kohlhaas

$539 Vol.

<1%

Heather McElwain

$1,077 Vol.

<1%

icon for Reece Roberts

Reece Roberts

$634 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections. Mary Peltola maintains an overwhelming 87% implied probability of finishing first in Alaska's August 18 top-four blanket primary for the U.S. Senate seat, far ahead of incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan at 7% and a crowded field of minor candidates. Peltola's position stems from superior fundraising—nearly $7 million raised since April compared with Sullivan's roughly $2 million—combined with strong grassroots organizing, labor endorsements, and statewide name recognition after her prior congressional wins. The presence of a same-name Republican challenger (Dan J. Sullivan) and more than a dozen low-profile candidates further fragments opposition support. With the primary just days away, traders view Peltola's momentum and resource edge as decisive in securing the top spot and advancing under the state's ranked-choice system.

This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Volume
$27,213
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections. Mary Peltola maintains an overwhelming 87% implied probability of finishing first in Alaska's August 18 top-four blanket primary for the U.S. Senate seat, far ahead of incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan at 7% and a crowded field of minor candidates. Peltola's position stems from superior fundraising—nearly $7 million raised since April compared with Sullivan's roughly $2 million—combined with strong grassroots organizing, labor endorsements, and statewide name recognition after her prior congressional wins. The presence of a same-name Republican challenger (Dan J. Sullivan) and more than a dozen low-profile candidates further fragments opposition support. With the primary just days away, traders view Peltola's momentum and resource edge as decisive in securing the top spot and advancing under the state's ranked-choice system.

This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Volume
$27,213
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mary Peltola" at 87%, followed by "Sen. Dan S. Sullivan" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?" has generated $27.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?" is "Mary Peltola" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sen. Dan S. Sullivan" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.