Mario Diaz-Balart, the long-serving Republican incumbent, faces Democratic nominee Nicole Locklin in Florida’s 26th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The seat’s post-redistricting partisan lean favors Republicans, with historical voting patterns showing an 18-point Trump margin in the most recent cycle. Diaz-Balart advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while the Democratic primary produced a single general-election challenger. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 84.5% Republican reflects the district’s structural advantages, incumbency, and limited recent developments that would alter the balance before the August 18 primary or November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-26 House Election Winner
FL-26 House Election Winner
$51,714 Vol.
$51,714 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
15%
$51,714 Vol.
$51,714 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,222 Vol.
85%
Democratic Party
$31,492 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mario Diaz-Balart, the long-serving Republican incumbent, faces Democratic nominee Nicole Locklin in Florida’s 26th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The seat’s post-redistricting partisan lean favors Republicans, with historical voting patterns showing an 18-point Trump margin in the most recent cycle. Diaz-Balart advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while the Democratic primary produced a single general-election challenger. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 84.5% Republican reflects the district’s structural advantages, incumbency, and limited recent developments that would alter the balance before the August 18 primary or November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$51,714End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mario Diaz-Balart, the long-serving Republican incumbent, faces Democratic nominee Nicole Locklin in Florida’s 26th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The seat’s post-redistricting partisan lean favors Republicans, with historical voting patterns showing an 18-point Trump margin in the most recent cycle. Diaz-Balart advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while the Democratic primary produced a single general-election challenger. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 84.5% Republican reflects the district’s structural advantages, incumbency, and limited recent developments that would alter the balance before the August 18 primary or November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$51,714End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mario Diaz-Balart, the long-serving Republican incumbent, faces Democratic nominee Nicole Locklin in Florida’s 26th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The seat’s post-redistricting partisan lean favors Republicans, with historical voting patterns showing an 18-point Trump margin in the most recent cycle. Diaz-Balart advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while the Democratic primary produced a single general-election challenger. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 84.5% Republican reflects the district’s structural advantages, incumbency, and limited recent developments that would alter the balance before the August 18 primary or November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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