South Carolina's 2026 Senate general election turnout sits in a narrow band of trader consensus because the contest follows a compressed special primary cycle triggered by the death of longtime incumbent Lindsey Graham. With roughly 3.5 million registered voters and a midterm environment historically yielding 42-50% participation, the outcome hinges on Republican primary runoff dynamics on August 25, Democratic nominee Annie Andrews's ability to boost base mobilization, and standard factors like early voting access and enthusiasm gaps. Recent record early voting in the June primaries signals potential upside, yet the solidly Republican state's electorate and the transition to new nominees could cap or inflate participation relative to 2022 levels around 1.7 million. Key catalysts ahead include the runoff results and any shifts in campaign spending or endorsements that alter voter engagement through November 3.