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icon for Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?

Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?

icon for Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?

Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?

Aug 31

Aug 31

NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$6,990 Vol.

Polymarket

15,000+

$4,039 Vol.

99%

20,000+

$497 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.**Cyclosporiasis**, caused by the parasite *Cyclospora cayetanensis*, spreads primarily through contaminated fresh produce and shows strong seasonality, with CDC defining the U.S. surveillance period as May 1–August 31. As of mid-August 2026, CDC reports 13,895 laboratory-confirmed domestically acquired cases since May 1—far exceeding the 1,180 total for the full 2025 season—with at least 10,455 additional cases under investigation. A major multistate outbreak tied to iceberg lettuce from central Mexico has driven much of the surge, particularly in Midwestern states, though new case reports have slowed in recent weeks following recalls and investigations. Market-implied odds will likely hinge on final CDC tallies released after August 31, any late-season clusters, and adjustments for underreporting typical of this illness. Traders should monitor CDC surveillance updates for shifts in confirmed counts or new outbreak linkages before season-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.
Volume
$6,990
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 11:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.**Cyclosporiasis**, caused by the parasite *Cyclospora cayetanensis*, spreads primarily through contaminated fresh produce and shows strong seasonality, with CDC defining the U.S. surveillance period as May 1–August 31. As of mid-August 2026, CDC reports 13,895 laboratory-confirmed domestically acquired cases since May 1—far exceeding the 1,180 total for the full 2025 season—with at least 10,455 additional cases under investigation. A major multistate outbreak tied to iceberg lettuce from central Mexico has driven much of the surge, particularly in Midwestern states, though new case reports have slowed in recent weeks following recalls and investigations. Market-implied odds will likely hinge on final CDC tallies released after August 31, any late-season clusters, and adjustments for underreporting typical of this illness. Traders should monitor CDC surveillance updates for shifts in confirmed counts or new outbreak linkages before season-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.
Volume
$6,990
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 11:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "10,000+" at 100%, followed by "15,000+" at 99%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?" is "10,000+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "15,000+" at 99%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.