As of mid-August 2026, trader sentiment for Seoul’s total monthly precipitation reflects substantial uncertainty around remaining monsoon and typhoon contributions after roughly half the month has passed with mostly typical summer conditions. Historical averages place August totals near 250–350 mm, driven by the East Asian summer monsoon and occasional typhoon landfalls, yet current Korea Meteorological Administration guidance shows limited immediate heavy rain amid a lingering heat wave and typhoons steering offshore. Model divergence in late-month steering patterns, atmospheric moisture, and potential convective outbreaks creates wide outcome ranges, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered from under 150 mm to over 500 mm. New forecast updates and any typhoon track shifts will likely sharpen these odds before month-end resolution.