Ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like CNEOS Sentry and Scout shows no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton impact energy in 2026, supporting the 73% market-implied odds for no strike. Small asteroids detected this year, including several bus- to house-sized objects, have all recorded safe flybys at distances exceeding lunar orbit with no impact probability. A 5kt event would typically involve a roughly 10-20 meter body, yet historical patterns and current catalogs indicate such objects are either too faint for early detection or burn up harmlessly. Traders weigh the low baseline frequency of detectable strikes against continuous sky surveys that rapidly rule out risks, with no recent model revisions or discoveries altering that assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
27% chance
$312,007 Vol.
$312,007 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
27% chance
$312,007 Vol.
$312,007 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like CNEOS Sentry and Scout shows no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton impact energy in 2026, supporting the 73% market-implied odds for no strike. Small asteroids detected this year, including several bus- to house-sized objects, have all recorded safe flybys at distances exceeding lunar orbit with no impact probability. A 5kt event would typically involve a roughly 10-20 meter body, yet historical patterns and current catalogs indicate such objects are either too faint for early detection or burn up harmlessly. Traders weigh the low baseline frequency of detectable strikes against continuous sky surveys that rapidly rule out risks, with no recent model revisions or discoveries altering that assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,007End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like CNEOS Sentry and Scout shows no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton impact energy in 2026, supporting the 73% market-implied odds for no strike. Small asteroids detected this year, including several bus- to house-sized objects, have all recorded safe flybys at distances exceeding lunar orbit with no impact probability. A 5kt event would typically involve a roughly 10-20 meter body, yet historical patterns and current catalogs indicate such objects are either too faint for early detection or burn up harmlessly. Traders weigh the low baseline frequency of detectable strikes against continuous sky surveys that rapidly rule out risks, with no recent model revisions or discoveries altering that assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,007End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like CNEOS Sentry and Scout shows no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton impact energy in 2026, supporting the 73% market-implied odds for no strike. Small asteroids detected this year, including several bus- to house-sized objects, have all recorded safe flybys at distances exceeding lunar orbit with no impact probability. A 5kt event would typically involve a roughly 10-20 meter body, yet historical patterns and current catalogs indicate such objects are either too faint for early detection or burn up harmlessly. Traders weigh the low baseline frequency of detectable strikes against continuous sky surveys that rapidly rule out risks, with no recent model revisions or discoveries altering that assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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