Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas and New Mexico livestock since the first confirmed U.S. case on June 3, 2026, have prompted state-level disaster declarations, CDC Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation, and USDA-led containment using sterile insect technique releases. Trader focus centers on whether escalating spread or sustained detections will trigger a broader federal national emergency declaration, as ongoing surveillance shows dozens of cases concentrated in southern Texas amid northward migration from Mexico. Official USDA dashboards track active infestations while FDA emergency use authorizations for preventive animal drugs support response efforts; upcoming model updates, sterile fly dispersal expansions, and any new case confirmations in late summer could shift containment odds and influence market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
August 30
43%
October 31
42%
December 31
47%
$1,442 Vol.
August 30
$61 Vol.
43%
October 31
$0 Vol.
42%
December 31
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas and New Mexico livestock since the first confirmed U.S. case on June 3, 2026, have prompted state-level disaster declarations, CDC Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation, and USDA-led containment using sterile insect technique releases. Trader focus centers on whether escalating spread or sustained detections will trigger a broader federal national emergency declaration, as ongoing surveillance shows dozens of cases concentrated in southern Texas amid northward migration from Mexico. Official USDA dashboards track active infestations while FDA emergency use authorizations for preventive animal drugs support response efforts; upcoming model updates, sterile fly dispersal expansions, and any new case confirmations in late summer could shift containment odds and influence market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas and New Mexico livestock since the first confirmed U.S. case on June 3, 2026, have prompted state-level disaster declarations, CDC Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation, and USDA-led containment using sterile insect technique releases. Trader focus centers on whether escalating spread or sustained detections will trigger a broader federal national emergency declaration, as ongoing surveillance shows dozens of cases concentrated in southern Texas amid northward migration from Mexico. Official USDA dashboards track active infestations while FDA emergency use authorizations for preventive animal drugs support response efforts; upcoming model updates, sterile fly dispersal expansions, and any new case confirmations in late summer could shift containment odds and influence market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas and New Mexico livestock since the first confirmed U.S. case on June 3, 2026, have prompted state-level disaster declarations, CDC Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation, and USDA-led containment using sterile insect technique releases. Trader focus centers on whether escalating spread or sustained detections will trigger a broader federal national emergency declaration, as ongoing surveillance shows dozens of cases concentrated in southern Texas amid northward migration from Mexico. Official USDA dashboards track active infestations while FDA emergency use authorizations for preventive animal drugs support response efforts; upcoming model updates, sterile fly dispersal expansions, and any new case confirmations in late summer could shift containment odds and influence market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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