Persistent inflation above Banco de la República’s 3% target, with the August 2026 print rising to 6.24% and end-2026 expectations near 6.6%, continues to anchor a restrictive stance at the current 12% policy rate. However, the Colombian peso’s substantial 2026 appreciation has eased imported price pressures and supported the July hold despite market expectations for a hike, creating room for a data-dependent pause. Solid Q2 growth, falling unemployment to 8.0%, and robust domestic demand reinforce caution against easing, while risks from potential El Niño effects or external shocks remain secondary. These dynamics align with Polymarket’s 73% implied probability of no change at the October 30 meeting, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will likely maintain the rate to monitor inflation convergence and peso dynamics ahead of the September 30 decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 73%
25 bps increase 11%
25 bps decrease 6%
50+ bps increase 4.2%
$10,404 Vol.
$10,404 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
73%
25 bps increase
11%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 73%
25 bps increase 11%
25 bps decrease 6%
50+ bps increase 4.2%
$10,404 Vol.
$10,404 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$542 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$1,367 Vol.
6%
No change
$5,981 Vol.
73%
25 bps increase
$964 Vol.
11%
50+ bps increase
$1,549 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Persistent inflation above Banco de la República’s 3% target, with the August 2026 print rising to 6.24% and end-2026 expectations near 6.6%, continues to anchor a restrictive stance at the current 12% policy rate. However, the Colombian peso’s substantial 2026 appreciation has eased imported price pressures and supported the July hold despite market expectations for a hike, creating room for a data-dependent pause. Solid Q2 growth, falling unemployment to 8.0%, and robust domestic demand reinforce caution against easing, while risks from potential El Niño effects or external shocks remain secondary. These dynamics align with Polymarket’s 73% implied probability of no change at the October 30 meeting, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will likely maintain the rate to monitor inflation convergence and peso dynamics ahead of the September 30 decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ET
Volume
$10,404End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Persistent inflation above Banco de la República’s 3% target, with the August 2026 print rising to 6.24% and end-2026 expectations near 6.6%, continues to anchor a restrictive stance at the current 12% policy rate. However, the Colombian peso’s substantial 2026 appreciation has eased imported price pressures and supported the July hold despite market expectations for a hike, creating room for a data-dependent pause. Solid Q2 growth, falling unemployment to 8.0%, and robust domestic demand reinforce caution against easing, while risks from potential El Niño effects or external shocks remain secondary. These dynamics align with Polymarket’s 73% implied probability of no change at the October 30 meeting, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will likely maintain the rate to monitor inflation convergence and peso dynamics ahead of the September 30 decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$10,404End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above Banco de la República’s 3% target, with the August 2026 print rising to 6.24% and end-2026 expectations near 6.6%, continues to anchor a restrictive stance at the current 12% policy rate. However, the Colombian peso’s substantial 2026 appreciation has eased imported price pressures and supported the July hold despite market expectations for a hike, creating room for a data-dependent pause. Solid Q2 growth, falling unemployment to 8.0%, and robust domestic demand reinforce caution against easing, while risks from potential El Niño effects or external shocks remain secondary. These dynamics align with Polymarket’s 73% implied probability of no change at the October 30 meeting, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will likely maintain the rate to monitor inflation convergence and peso dynamics ahead of the September 30 decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions