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Economy·Prices

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

icon for Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
Economy·Prices

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Polymarket

$2,814 Vol.

Polymarket

September 20

$677 Vol.

1%

September 30

$1,577 Vol.

22%

October 31

$560 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source. This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices, currently above $90–$100 per barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant driver keeping U.S. retail gasoline averages near $4.48 per gallon as of late September 2026. Regional benchmarks show the lowest state averages (such as Texas or Gulf Coast) hovering around $3.93, well above the $3.75 threshold, with national figures up sharply from year-ago levels near $3.18. Refinery margins, inventory draws, and seasonal demand add upward pressure, while any resolution in Iran-related supply risks could ease prices toward historical correlations with lower WTI levels. Traders monitoring EIA weekly releases and geopolitical headlines will focus on near-term catalysts that could shift state-level readings before resolution dates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.

This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source. This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Volume
$2,814
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source. This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices, currently above $90–$100 per barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant driver keeping U.S. retail gasoline averages near $4.48 per gallon as of late September 2026. Regional benchmarks show the lowest state averages (such as Texas or Gulf Coast) hovering around $3.93, well above the $3.75 threshold, with national figures up sharply from year-ago levels near $3.18. Refinery margins, inventory draws, and seasonal demand add upward pressure, while any resolution in Iran-related supply risks could ease prices toward historical correlations with lower WTI levels. Traders monitoring EIA weekly releases and geopolitical headlines will focus on near-term catalysts that could shift state-level readings before resolution dates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.

This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source. This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Volume
$2,814
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 31" at 46%, followed by "September 30" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?" is "October 31" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.