Recent hot inflation prints, including August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly rise, have reinforced trader views that the Federal Reserve must deliver additional tightening to address persistent price pressures above its 2% target. The September FOMC meeting's unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4% federal funds range, paired with the Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1% median rate endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one further increase, has anchored the market-implied 86.5% probability for another hike this year. Solid growth forecasts and a resilient labor market at 4.1% unemployment have supported the hawkish shift, while two-year Treasury yields above 4.7% reflect the repriced policy path ahead of the October and December meetings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated87% chance
$126,015 Vol.
$126,015 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
87% chance
$126,015 Vol.
$126,015 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hot inflation prints, including August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly rise, have reinforced trader views that the Federal Reserve must deliver additional tightening to address persistent price pressures above its 2% target. The September FOMC meeting's unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4% federal funds range, paired with the Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1% median rate endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one further increase, has anchored the market-implied 86.5% probability for another hike this year. Solid growth forecasts and a resilient labor market at 4.1% unemployment have supported the hawkish shift, while two-year Treasury yields above 4.7% reflect the repriced policy path ahead of the October and December meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$126,015End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hot inflation prints, including August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly rise, have reinforced trader views that the Federal Reserve must deliver additional tightening to address persistent price pressures above its 2% target. The September FOMC meeting's unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4% federal funds range, paired with the Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1% median rate endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one further increase, has anchored the market-implied 86.5% probability for another hike this year. Solid growth forecasts and a resilient labor market at 4.1% unemployment have supported the hawkish shift, while two-year Treasury yields above 4.7% reflect the repriced policy path ahead of the October and December meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$126,015End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hot inflation prints, including August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly rise, have reinforced trader views that the Federal Reserve must deliver additional tightening to address persistent price pressures above its 2% target. The September FOMC meeting's unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4% federal funds range, paired with the Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1% median rate endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one further increase, has anchored the market-implied 86.5% probability for another hike this year. Solid growth forecasts and a resilient labor market at 4.1% unemployment have supported the hawkish shift, while two-year Treasury yields above 4.7% reflect the repriced policy path ahead of the October and December meetings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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