Rising food and energy prices have shifted trader sentiment toward a 25 basis point repo rate increase at the RBI’s October 5-7 meeting, with August CPI inflation accelerating to 4.82 percent and forecasts pointing to a breach of the 6 percent upper tolerance band in the third quarter. Elevated crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, resilient GDP growth near 6.7 percent, and the Federal Reserve’s tightening path have reinforced expectations for preemptive tightening from the current 5.25 percent level. Recent analyst revisions from institutions including SBI Research and Nomura now assign high probability to consecutive 25 basis point hikes in October and December, aligning with market-implied odds that reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term policy normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 81%
No Change 19%
50+ bps increase 3.1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$22,555 Vol.
$22,555 Vol.
Oct 6, 2026
50+ bps increase
3%
25 bps increase
81%
No Change
19%
25 bps decrease
1%
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps increase 81%
No Change 19%
50+ bps increase 3.1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$22,555 Vol.
$22,555 Vol.
Oct 6, 2026
50+ bps increase
$1,611 Vol.
3%
25 bps increase
$8,547 Vol.
81%
No Change
$10,289 Vol.
19%
25 bps decrease
$1,005 Vol.
1%
50+ bps decrease
$1,103 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Rising food and energy prices have shifted trader sentiment toward a 25 basis point repo rate increase at the RBI’s October 5-7 meeting, with August CPI inflation accelerating to 4.82 percent and forecasts pointing to a breach of the 6 percent upper tolerance band in the third quarter. Elevated crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, resilient GDP growth near 6.7 percent, and the Federal Reserve’s tightening path have reinforced expectations for preemptive tightening from the current 5.25 percent level. Recent analyst revisions from institutions including SBI Research and Nomura now assign high probability to consecutive 25 basis point hikes in October and December, aligning with market-implied odds that reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term policy normalization.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
Volume
$22,555End Date
Oct 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Rising food and energy prices have shifted trader sentiment toward a 25 basis point repo rate increase at the RBI’s October 5-7 meeting, with August CPI inflation accelerating to 4.82 percent and forecasts pointing to a breach of the 6 percent upper tolerance band in the third quarter. Elevated crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, resilient GDP growth near 6.7 percent, and the Federal Reserve’s tightening path have reinforced expectations for preemptive tightening from the current 5.25 percent level. Recent analyst revisions from institutions including SBI Research and Nomura now assign high probability to consecutive 25 basis point hikes in October and December, aligning with market-implied odds that reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term policy normalization.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$22,555End Date
Oct 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rising food and energy prices have shifted trader sentiment toward a 25 basis point repo rate increase at the RBI’s October 5-7 meeting, with August CPI inflation accelerating to 4.82 percent and forecasts pointing to a breach of the 6 percent upper tolerance band in the third quarter. Elevated crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, resilient GDP growth near 6.7 percent, and the Federal Reserve’s tightening path have reinforced expectations for preemptive tightening from the current 5.25 percent level. Recent analyst revisions from institutions including SBI Research and Nomura now assign high probability to consecutive 25 basis point hikes in October and December, aligning with market-implied odds that reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term policy normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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