Recent August CPI data, showing a 0.4% month-over-month headline rise and 0.3% core increase amid a 3.4% year-over-year rate, has anchored expectations for September as energy prices rebound sharply from elevated oil above $100 per barrel and gasoline surges. Persistent shelter costs and producer price pass-through add upward pressure, while moderating goods deflation and base effects introduce downside risks. With market-implied odds clustered tightly around 0.4% and 0.5% month-over-month, traders weigh volatile energy components against sticky services inflation ahead of the October release, consistent with the post-August repricing that elevated near-term rate-hike probabilities at the Federal Reserve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.5% 38%
0.4% 32%
0.6% 21%
0.7% 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
1%
0.1%
1%
0.2%
3%
0.3%
4%
0.4%
32%
0.5%
38%
0.6%
21%
0.7%
8%
≥0.8%
6%
0.5% 38%
0.4% 32%
0.6% 21%
0.7% 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
$132 Vol.
1%
0.1%
$110 Vol.
1%
0.2%
$170 Vol.
3%
0.3%
$363 Vol.
4%
0.4%
$3,243 Vol.
32%
0.5%
$3,668 Vol.
38%
0.6%
$861 Vol.
21%
0.7%
$274 Vol.
8%
≥0.8%
$923 Vol.
6%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, showing a 0.4% month-over-month headline rise and 0.3% core increase amid a 3.4% year-over-year rate, has anchored expectations for September as energy prices rebound sharply from elevated oil above $100 per barrel and gasoline surges. Persistent shelter costs and producer price pass-through add upward pressure, while moderating goods deflation and base effects introduce downside risks. With market-implied odds clustered tightly around 0.4% and 0.5% month-over-month, traders weigh volatile energy components against sticky services inflation ahead of the October release, consistent with the post-August repricing that elevated near-term rate-hike probabilities at the Federal Reserve.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$9,744End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, showing a 0.4% month-over-month headline rise and 0.3% core increase amid a 3.4% year-over-year rate, has anchored expectations for September as energy prices rebound sharply from elevated oil above $100 per barrel and gasoline surges. Persistent shelter costs and producer price pass-through add upward pressure, while moderating goods deflation and base effects introduce downside risks. With market-implied odds clustered tightly around 0.4% and 0.5% month-over-month, traders weigh volatile energy components against sticky services inflation ahead of the October release, consistent with the post-August repricing that elevated near-term rate-hike probabilities at the Federal Reserve.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$9,744End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data, showing a 0.4% month-over-month headline rise and 0.3% core increase amid a 3.4% year-over-year rate, has anchored expectations for September as energy prices rebound sharply from elevated oil above $100 per barrel and gasoline surges. Persistent shelter costs and producer price pass-through add upward pressure, while moderating goods deflation and base effects introduce downside risks. With market-implied odds clustered tightly around 0.4% and 0.5% month-over-month, traders weigh volatile energy components against sticky services inflation ahead of the October release, consistent with the post-August repricing that elevated near-term rate-hike probabilities at the Federal Reserve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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