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icon for AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Tech·AI

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

icon for AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Tech·AI

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

35% chance
Polymarket
NEW
35% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent AI advances in mathematical reasoning, including OpenAI and Gemini Deep Think models reaching gold-medal thresholds of 35/42 on 2025 IMO problems and a reported perfect 42/42 score by a Chinese RedNote model on 2026 problems, have not shifted the "No" outcome to majority odds because traders remain skeptical of unofficial grading, best-of-n sampling, and lack of formal IMO participation under identical time and verification rules. Persistent gaps in robust, contest-compliant performance—highlighted by independent benchmarks where leading large language models still fail multiple problems—support the 65% implied probability for no official gold in 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include official IMO scoring releases and any verified formal entries that could resolve these verification concerns.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Volume
$9,281
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent AI advances in mathematical reasoning, including OpenAI and Gemini Deep Think models reaching gold-medal thresholds of 35/42 on 2025 IMO problems and a reported perfect 42/42 score by a Chinese RedNote model on 2026 problems, have not shifted the "No" outcome to majority odds because traders remain skeptical of unofficial grading, best-of-n sampling, and lack of formal IMO participation under identical time and verification rules. Persistent gaps in robust, contest-compliant performance—highlighted by independent benchmarks where leading large language models still fail multiple problems—support the 65% implied probability for no official gold in 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include official IMO scoring releases and any verified formal entries that could resolve these verification concerns.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Volume
$9,281
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 35% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 35¢, the market collectively assigns a 35% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 12, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" is 35% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 35% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.