Trump's March 2025 executive order directed the Secretary of Education to facilitate closure and shift authority to states, prompting substantial staff reductions and transfers of functions such as civil rights enforcement and special education oversight to other agencies. However, the Department of Education was established by statute, so full elimination requires new legislation from Congress. With the filibuster in place and limited bipartisan support evident in Senate proceedings, no such measure has advanced toward enactment by mid-2026 despite introduced bills targeting a 2026 termination date. Traders assign "No" a 95.9% implied probability because procedural and vote-count barriers have held firm. Late-session reconciliation, Senate rule changes, or unexpected bipartisan deals before the 2027 cutoff remain the main variables that could alter the outcome.