Recent polls place President Trump's job approval in the low-to-mid 30s, with figures ranging from 33% in Economist/YouGov surveys to around 37-38% in aggregates from Nate Silver and the New York Times. A prolonged conflict in Iran and elevated gas prices have weighed on public sentiment in recent weeks, contributing to the compressed range of trader probabilities across 37-39% buckets for the August 21 reading. The market remains tightly bunched because no single catalyst has shifted the underlying trend decisively in the past several days. Upcoming data releases, any diplomatic movement on foreign policy, or shifts in economic indicators before the resolution date could separate the leading intervals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated38.0–38.4 40%
37.0–37.4 39%
39.0+ 39%
<37.0 38%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
<37.0
38%
37.0–37.4
39%
37.5–37.9
38%
38.0–38.4
40%
38.5–38.9
38%
39.0+
39%
38.0–38.4 40%
37.0–37.4 39%
39.0+ 39%
<37.0 38%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
<37.0
$0 Vol.
38%
37.0–37.4
$0 Vol.
39%
37.5–37.9
$0 Vol.
38%
38.0–38.4
$0 Vol.
40%
38.5–38.9
$0 Vol.
38%
39.0+
$0 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 21, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls place President Trump's job approval in the low-to-mid 30s, with figures ranging from 33% in Economist/YouGov surveys to around 37-38% in aggregates from Nate Silver and the New York Times. A prolonged conflict in Iran and elevated gas prices have weighed on public sentiment in recent weeks, contributing to the compressed range of trader probabilities across 37-39% buckets for the August 21 reading. The market remains tightly bunched because no single catalyst has shifted the underlying trend decisively in the past several days. Upcoming data releases, any diplomatic movement on foreign policy, or shifts in economic indicators before the resolution date could separate the leading intervals.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 21, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 21, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls place President Trump's job approval in the low-to-mid 30s, with figures ranging from 33% in Economist/YouGov surveys to around 37-38% in aggregates from Nate Silver and the New York Times. A prolonged conflict in Iran and elevated gas prices have weighed on public sentiment in recent weeks, contributing to the compressed range of trader probabilities across 37-39% buckets for the August 21 reading. The market remains tightly bunched because no single catalyst has shifted the underlying trend decisively in the past several days. Upcoming data releases, any diplomatic movement on foreign policy, or shifts in economic indicators before the resolution date could separate the leading intervals.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 21, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place President Trump's job approval in the low-to-mid 30s, with figures ranging from 33% in Economist/YouGov surveys to around 37-38% in aggregates from Nate Silver and the New York Times. A prolonged conflict in Iran and elevated gas prices have weighed on public sentiment in recent weeks, contributing to the compressed range of trader probabilities across 37-39% buckets for the August 21 reading. The market remains tightly bunched because no single catalyst has shifted the underlying trend decisively in the past several days. Upcoming data releases, any diplomatic movement on foreign policy, or shifts in economic indicators before the resolution date could separate the leading intervals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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