The strong trader consensus against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 stems primarily from the structural stability of the presidential term that began with his January 2025 inauguration and extends to January 2029, combined with the historical rarity of voluntary exits absent acute institutional crises. No official statements, party actions, or procedural developments have signaled departure, even amid midterm election cycles and policy implementation on issues such as foreign affairs. Low implied probabilities reflect the baseline expectation that incumbents complete terms when congressional majorities provide insulation from removal processes. Realistic factors that could alter this assessment include sudden health-related incapacity, major legal rulings with direct implications for eligibility, or extraordinary post-election shifts creating sustained pressure for a negotiated transition.