**Incumbent Mike Johnson (R), the Speaker of the House, faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district jungle primary, where all candidates appear on a single ballot and a majority triggers an outright win without a runoff.** Declared challengers include Democrats Conrad Cable and Matt Gromlich along with Republican Mike Nichols, after Josh Morott withdrew. Johnson previously captured 85.8% in the 2024 primary against a single intra-party rival. The district’s strong Republican tilt, combined with Johnson’s incumbency advantages and fundraising edge, supports trader expectations that he will exceed 50% in the first round. No major late developments or high-profile challengers have emerged to alter this positioning ahead of the November contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated88% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
88% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.**Incumbent Mike Johnson (R), the Speaker of the House, faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district jungle primary, where all candidates appear on a single ballot and a majority triggers an outright win without a runoff.**
Declared challengers include Democrats Conrad Cable and Matt Gromlich along with Republican Mike Nichols, after Josh Morott withdrew. Johnson previously captured 85.8% in the 2024 primary against a single intra-party rival. The district’s strong Republican tilt, combined with Johnson’s incumbency advantages and fundraising edge, supports trader expectations that he will exceed 50% in the first round. No major late developments or high-profile challengers have emerged to alter this positioning ahead of the November contest.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$368End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.**Incumbent Mike Johnson (R), the Speaker of the House, faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district jungle primary, where all candidates appear on a single ballot and a majority triggers an outright win without a runoff.**
Declared challengers include Democrats Conrad Cable and Matt Gromlich along with Republican Mike Nichols, after Josh Morott withdrew. Johnson previously captured 85.8% in the 2024 primary against a single intra-party rival. The district’s strong Republican tilt, combined with Johnson’s incumbency advantages and fundraising edge, supports trader expectations that he will exceed 50% in the first round. No major late developments or high-profile challengers have emerged to alter this positioning ahead of the November contest.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
Volume
$368End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Incumbent Mike Johnson (R), the Speaker of the House, faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district jungle primary, where all candidates appear on a single ballot and a majority triggers an outright win without a runoff.** Declared challengers include Democrats Conrad Cable and Matt Gromlich along with Republican Mike Nichols, after Josh Morott withdrew. Johnson previously captured 85.8% in the 2024 primary against a single intra-party rival. The district’s strong Republican tilt, combined with Johnson’s incumbency advantages and fundraising edge, supports trader expectations that he will exceed 50% in the first round. No major late developments or high-profile challengers have emerged to alter this positioning ahead of the November contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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