The Democratic primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District pits incumbent Jared Moskowitz against progressive challenger Oliver Larkin on August 18. Recent polling shows the contest tightening into a statistical dead heat, with one internal survey placing Moskowitz ahead 40-38 among likely voters and 22% undecided. Moskowitz benefits from strong early-voting support and substantial outside spending, while Larkin leads among those who have not yet voted and appeals to voters seeking a more left-leaning alternative. The four-day window to primary day, combined with undecided voters and differing turnout patterns, keeps margin outcomes highly uncertain and maintains the even pricing across victory buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoskowitz 25%+ 26%
Larkin 25%+ 23%
Moskowitz 20–25% 14%
Moskowitz 15–20% 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
Moskowitz 25%+
26%
Moskowitz 20–25%
14%
Moskowitz 15–20%
14%
Moskowitz 10–15%
14%
Moskowitz 5–10%
14%
Moskowitz <5%
14%
Larkin <5%
14%
Larkin 5–10%
14%
Larkin 10–15%
14%
Larkin 15–20%
14%
Larkin 20–25%
14%
Larkin 25%+
23%
Moskowitz 25%+ 26%
Larkin 25%+ 23%
Moskowitz 20–25% 14%
Moskowitz 15–20% 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
Moskowitz 25%+
$0 Vol.
26%
Moskowitz 20–25%
$0 Vol.
14%
Moskowitz 15–20%
$0 Vol.
14%
Moskowitz 10–15%
$0 Vol.
14%
Moskowitz 5–10%
$0 Vol.
14%
Moskowitz <5%
$0 Vol.
14%
Larkin <5%
$0 Vol.
14%
Larkin 5–10%
$0 Vol.
14%
Larkin 10–15%
$0 Vol.
14%
Larkin 15–20%
$0 Vol.
14%
Larkin 20–25%
$0 Vol.
14%
Larkin 25%+
$0 Vol.
23%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District pits incumbent Jared Moskowitz against progressive challenger Oliver Larkin on August 18. Recent polling shows the contest tightening into a statistical dead heat, with one internal survey placing Moskowitz ahead 40-38 among likely voters and 22% undecided. Moskowitz benefits from strong early-voting support and substantial outside spending, while Larkin leads among those who have not yet voted and appeals to voters seeking a more left-leaning alternative. The four-day window to primary day, combined with undecided voters and differing turnout patterns, keeps margin outcomes highly uncertain and maintains the even pricing across victory buckets.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District pits incumbent Jared Moskowitz against progressive challenger Oliver Larkin on August 18. Recent polling shows the contest tightening into a statistical dead heat, with one internal survey placing Moskowitz ahead 40-38 among likely voters and 22% undecided. Moskowitz benefits from strong early-voting support and substantial outside spending, while Larkin leads among those who have not yet voted and appeals to voters seeking a more left-leaning alternative. The four-day window to primary day, combined with undecided voters and differing turnout patterns, keeps margin outcomes highly uncertain and maintains the even pricing across victory buckets.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Democratic primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District pits incumbent Jared Moskowitz against progressive challenger Oliver Larkin on August 18. Recent polling shows the contest tightening into a statistical dead heat, with one internal survey placing Moskowitz ahead 40-38 among likely voters and 22% undecided. Moskowitz benefits from strong early-voting support and substantial outside spending, while Larkin leads among those who have not yet voted and appeals to voters seeking a more left-leaning alternative. The four-day window to primary day, combined with undecided voters and differing turnout patterns, keeps margin outcomes highly uncertain and maintains the even pricing across victory buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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