Canada’s population has already posted multiple consecutive quarterly declines through mid-2026, driven by sharp reductions in non-permanent residents. Federal policy shifts, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cut new temporary resident targets by roughly 43 percent and halved international student arrivals while tightening work-permit rules. These measures, continued from late-2025 adjustments, produced net outflows exceeding 117,000 non-permanent residents in Q1 2026 alone and contributed to cumulative losses above 230,000 since mid-2025. Statistics Canada data confirm the resulting annual contraction exceeds prior records outside the pandemic period. Traders assign an 84.5 percent probability to the largest drop because sustained lower admission volumes and permit expirations are projected to keep 2026 net migration near zero or negative, outweighing modest permanent-resident inflows.