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Politics·Mexico

Nayarit Governor Election Winner

icon for Nayarit Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Nayarit Governor Election Winner

Geraldine Ponce Méndez 47%

Gustavo Ayón Aguirre 21%

Héctor Javier Santana García 20%

Pavel Jarero Velázquez 10%

Polymarket
NEW

Geraldine Ponce Méndez 47%

Gustavo Ayón Aguirre 21%

Héctor Javier Santana García 20%

Pavel Jarero Velázquez 10%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Geraldine Ponce Méndez

Geraldine Ponce Méndez

$2,063 Vol.

47%

icon for Gustavo Ayón Aguirre

Gustavo Ayón Aguirre

$188 Vol.

21%

icon for Héctor Javier Santana García

Héctor Javier Santana García

$358 Vol.

19%

icon for Pavel Jarero Velázquez

Pavel Jarero Velázquez

$136 Vol.

10%

icon for Ignacio Flores Medina

Ignacio Flores Medina

$218 Vol.

5%

icon for Ivonne Sabrina Díaz

Ivonne Sabrina Díaz

$287 Vol.

5%

icon for José Antonio Barajas López

José Antonio Barajas López

$241 Vol.

4%

icon for Héctor Santana García

Héctor Santana García

$212 Vol.

4%

icon for Gloria Núñez Sánchez

Gloria Núñez Sánchez

$183 Vol.

4%

icon for Ivideliza Reyes Hernández

Ivideliza Reyes Hernández

$207 Vol.

4%

icon for Luis Zamora Carrillo

Luis Zamora Carrillo

$263 Vol.

4%

icon for Citlalli Rubí Huerta

Citlalli Rubí Huerta

$226 Vol.

4%

icon for Julieta Mejía Ibáñez

Julieta Mejía Ibáñez

$288 Vol.

4%

icon for Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu

Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu

$204 Vol.

4%

icon for José Ramón Cambero Pérez

José Ramón Cambero Pérez

$207 Vol.

3%

icon for Paola Vargas Arciniega

Paola Vargas Arciniega

$207 Vol.

3%

icon for Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez

Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez

$220 Vol.

2%

icon for Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez

Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez

$207 Vol.

2%

icon for Manuel Cota Jiménez

Manuel Cota Jiménez

$226 Vol.

1%

icon for Enrique Díaz López

Enrique Díaz López

$66 Vol.

1%

icon for María Elizabeth López Blanco

María Elizabeth López Blanco

$222 Vol.

1%

icon for Nadia Ramírez López

Nadia Ramírez López

$224 Vol.

1%

icon for Jesús Armando Vélez Macías

Jesús Armando Vélez Macías

$222 Vol.

1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.In Mexico's 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial race, scheduled for June 6, trader consensus reflects a fragmented field with Geraldine Ponce Méndez holding the highest implied probability near 47 percent amid Morena's effort to retain the governorship. Early polling from mid-2026, including internal party surveys, shows competing frontrunners such as Héctor Javier Santana García and others vying for the nomination, creating volatility in positioning. The absence of a clear primary frontrunner or major campaign events keeps probabilities clustered, as traders weigh potential Morena coalition dynamics, candidate endorsements, and state-level polling trends against historical patterns of incumbent-party retention in similar contests. Upcoming internal selections or national party signals could shift odds by clarifying viable paths to the general ballot.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$6,872
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.In Mexico's 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial race, scheduled for June 6, trader consensus reflects a fragmented field with Geraldine Ponce Méndez holding the highest implied probability near 47 percent amid Morena's effort to retain the governorship. Early polling from mid-2026, including internal party surveys, shows competing frontrunners such as Héctor Javier Santana García and others vying for the nomination, creating volatility in positioning. The absence of a clear primary frontrunner or major campaign events keeps probabilities clustered, as traders weigh potential Morena coalition dynamics, candidate endorsements, and state-level polling trends against historical patterns of incumbent-party retention in similar contests. Upcoming internal selections or national party signals could shift odds by clarifying viable paths to the general ballot.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$6,872
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nayarit Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Geraldine Ponce Méndez" at 47%, followed by "Enrique Díaz López" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Nayarit Governor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Nayarit Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nayarit Governor Election Winner" is "Geraldine Ponce Méndez" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Enrique Díaz López" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nayarit Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.