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Politics·Mexico

Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner

icon for Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner

Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias 48%

Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado 47%

José Saúl González Núñez 47%

Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón 47%

Polymarket
NEW

Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias 48%

Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado 47%

José Saúl González Núñez 47%

Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón 47%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias

Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias

$116 Vol.

48%

icon for Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado

Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado

$116 Vol.

47%

icon for José Saúl González Núñez

José Saúl González Núñez

$116 Vol.

47%

icon for Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón

Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón

$116 Vol.

47%

icon for Milena Quiroga Romero

Milena Quiroga Romero

$426 Vol.

46%

icon for Ricardo Barroso Agramont

Ricardo Barroso Agramont

$116 Vol.

43%

icon for Susana Zataraín García

Susana Zataraín García

$116 Vol.

42%

icon for Roxana Higuera

Roxana Higuera

$116 Vol.

26%

icon for Manuel Cota Cárdenas

Manuel Cota Cárdenas

$116 Vol.

26%

icon for José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar

José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar

$116 Vol.

25%

icon for Edith Aguilar Villavicencio

Edith Aguilar Villavicencio

$116 Vol.

17%

icon for Christian Agúndez Gómez

Christian Agúndez Gómez

$1,710 Vol.

7%

icon for Antonio Manríquez

Antonio Manríquez

$116 Vol.

5%

icon for Diana Von Borstel Luna

Diana Von Borstel Luna

$116 Vol.

5%

icon for Fabricio del Castillo

Fabricio del Castillo

$116 Vol.

4%

icon for Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros

Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros

$66 Vol.

<1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The Baja California Sur gubernatorial race for the June 2027 election remains highly fluid, with trader consensus reflecting a crowded field and no decisive frontrunner yet. Milena Quiroga Romero holds the highest implied probability at 45.5% as the leading Morena aspirant, ahead of several others in the low 20s or below, amid early internal party surveys that show her with roughly 30% preference inside the dominant party. Recent Morena candidate filings and polling trends have kept preferences fragmented, while the absence of an open primary and reliance on internal mechanisms limit clear separation. Factors sustaining the tight positioning include a large slate of contenders from Morena, shifting regional alignments, and limited public polling on general-election matchups. Developments that could widen gaps include finalized party nominations, additional surveys of voter intent, or shifts in state party dynamics ahead of the 2027 ballot.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$3,715
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The Baja California Sur gubernatorial race for the June 2027 election remains highly fluid, with trader consensus reflecting a crowded field and no decisive frontrunner yet. Milena Quiroga Romero holds the highest implied probability at 45.5% as the leading Morena aspirant, ahead of several others in the low 20s or below, amid early internal party surveys that show her with roughly 30% preference inside the dominant party. Recent Morena candidate filings and polling trends have kept preferences fragmented, while the absence of an open primary and reliance on internal mechanisms limit clear separation. Factors sustaining the tight positioning include a large slate of contenders from Morena, shifting regional alignments, and limited public polling on general-election matchups. Developments that could widen gaps include finalized party nominations, additional surveys of voter intent, or shifts in state party dynamics ahead of the 2027 ballot.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$3,715
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Milena Quiroga Romero" at 46%, followed by "José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" is "Milena Quiroga Romero" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.