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Politics·Mexico

Sonora Governor Election Winner

icon for Sonora Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Sonora Governor Election Winner

Lorenia Valles Sampedro 77%

Rogelio Díaz Brown 10%

Damián Zepeda Vidales 6%

Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez 5.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Lorenia Valles Sampedro 77%

Rogelio Díaz Brown 10%

Damián Zepeda Vidales 6%

Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez 5.2%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Lorenia Valles Sampedro

Lorenia Valles Sampedro

$1,176 Vol.

77%

icon for Rogelio Díaz Brown

Rogelio Díaz Brown

$109 Vol.

10%

icon for Damián Zepeda Vidales

Damián Zepeda Vidales

$150 Vol.

6%

icon for Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez

Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez

$160 Vol.

5%

icon for Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez

Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez

$160 Vol.

5%

icon for Javier Lamarque Cano

Javier Lamarque Cano

$226 Vol.

5%

icon for Célida Teresa López Cárdenas

Célida Teresa López Cárdenas

$160 Vol.

5%

icon for Manuel Scott Sánchez

Manuel Scott Sánchez

$166 Vol.

5%

icon for Heriberto Aguilar Castillo

Heriberto Aguilar Castillo

$166 Vol.

4%

icon for María Dolores del Río Sánchez

María Dolores del Río Sánchez

$88 Vol.

1%

icon for Froylán Gámez Gamboa

Froylán Gámez Gamboa

$118 Vol.

1%

icon for Lilly Téllez García

Lilly Téllez García

$130 Vol.

1%

icon for Ernesto Gándara Camou

Ernesto Gándara Camou

$88 Vol.

1%

icon for Víctor Hugo Celaya

Víctor Hugo Celaya

$164 Vol.

15%

icon for Patricia Mercado Castro

Patricia Mercado Castro

$186 Vol.

8%

icon for Natalia Rivera Grijalva

Natalia Rivera Grijalva

$166 Vol.

1%

icon for Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas

Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas

$88 Vol.

1%

icon for Omar del Valle Colosio

Omar del Valle Colosio

$186 Vol.

1%

icon for Guadalupe María Soto

Guadalupe María Soto

$171 Vol.

6%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Lorenia Valles Sampedro holds the strongest position among candidates for the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election, scheduled for June 6, as recent internal surveys show her leading Morena's selection process with 30-40% support. Traders reflect this frontrunner status through elevated pricing on her outcome, consistent with Morena's dominance in the state since the prior cycle. Other listed contenders, including Ernesto Gándara Camou, Víctor Hugo Celaya, and various opposition figures, register lower probabilities due to weaker polling visibility and party nomination dynamics. Recent endorsements and her Senate leave to pursue the candidacy have reinforced positioning ahead of formal primary steps, though final nominee selection and general election turnout remain key variables that could shift consensus ahead of the vote.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$3,859
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Lorenia Valles Sampedro holds the strongest position among candidates for the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election, scheduled for June 6, as recent internal surveys show her leading Morena's selection process with 30-40% support. Traders reflect this frontrunner status through elevated pricing on her outcome, consistent with Morena's dominance in the state since the prior cycle. Other listed contenders, including Ernesto Gándara Camou, Víctor Hugo Celaya, and various opposition figures, register lower probabilities due to weaker polling visibility and party nomination dynamics. Recent endorsements and her Senate leave to pursue the candidacy have reinforced positioning ahead of formal primary steps, though final nominee selection and general election turnout remain key variables that could shift consensus ahead of the vote.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$3,859
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Sonora Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lorenia Valles Sampedro" at 78%, followed by "Lilly Téllez García" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Sonora Governor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Sonora Governor Election Winner," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sonora Governor Election Winner" is "Lorenia Valles Sampedro" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lilly Téllez García" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sonora Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.