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Climate & Science·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

icon for What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Climate & Science·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

Dolly 36%

Edouard 18%

Fay 14%

Isaias 6.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Dolly 36%

Edouard 18%

Fay 14%

Isaias 6.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Cristobal

$1,657 Vol.

3%

Dolly

$252 Vol.

36%

Edouard

$857 Vol.

18%

Fay

$413 Vol.

14%

Gonzalo

$472 Vol.

5%

Hanna

$98 Vol.

5%

Isaias

$350 Vol.

6%

Josephine

$55 Vol.

5%

Kyle

$94 Vol.

3%

Leah

$59 Vol.

3%

Marco

$111 Vol.

5%

Nana

$51 Vol.

5%

Omar

$67 Vol.

5%

Paulette

$71 Vol.

5%

Rene

$63 Vol.

5%

Sally

$131 Vol.

3%

Teddy

$63 Vol.

5%

Vicky

$90 Vol.

4%

Wilfred

$118 Vol.

4%

Other

$63 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **As of mid-August 2026, the Atlantic basin remains hurricane-free after three early tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—all of which peaked below hurricane intensity (maximum sustained winds under 74 mph).** This quiet start aligns with NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks for a below-normal season driven by ongoing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress organized convection. The official 2026 name list places Dolly next in sequence, followed by Edouard and Fay, giving these systems the earliest opportunity to intensify as the climatological peak approaches in September. Traders assign Dolly the highest implied probability (36%) because the next named storm has the first realistic window to reach hurricane strength amid subdued overall activity; Edouard (22.5%) and Fay (14%) follow as subsequent candidates if initial development remains weak or sheared. Later names carry lower odds due to the reduced seasonal storm count (current forecasts around 7–13 named storms) and the low likelihood of multiple systems forming before one of the early ones organizes. With no tropical cyclone activity expected in the coming week and El Niño effects persisting, the market reflects the name-order sequence combined with the scientific expectation of limited intensification potential in the near term.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$5,137
End Date
Dec 2, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **As of mid-August 2026, the Atlantic basin remains hurricane-free after three early tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—all of which peaked below hurricane intensity (maximum sustained winds under 74 mph).** This quiet start aligns with NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks for a below-normal season driven by ongoing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress organized convection. The official 2026 name list places Dolly next in sequence, followed by Edouard and Fay, giving these systems the earliest opportunity to intensify as the climatological peak approaches in September. Traders assign Dolly the highest implied probability (36%) because the next named storm has the first realistic window to reach hurricane strength amid subdued overall activity; Edouard (22.5%) and Fay (14%) follow as subsequent candidates if initial development remains weak or sheared. Later names carry lower odds due to the reduced seasonal storm count (current forecasts around 7–13 named storms) and the low likelihood of multiple systems forming before one of the early ones organizes. With no tropical cyclone activity expected in the coming week and El Niño effects persisting, the market reflects the name-order sequence combined with the scientific expectation of limited intensification potential in the near term.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$5,137
End Date
Dec 2, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dolly" at 36%, followed by "Edouard" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is "Dolly" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Edouard" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.