Recent U.S. policy moves, including a Trump administration deal securing majority stakes in Venezuelan fields holding 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, have driven trader focus on potential SPR replenishment amid ongoing drawdowns. The reserve stood at 286.6 million barrels (40.1% of 714 million capacity) as of September 2, 2026, following releases tied to supply disruptions. President Trump stated Venezuelan crude would enable “topping out” shortly, but Venezuelan extra-heavy sour oil conflicts with SPR storage specifications, as Energy Department analyses have noted prohibitive costs and operational issues for blending or infrastructure upgrades. Production ramp-up faces infrastructure and investment hurdles, with current Venezuelan output around 1.25 million barrels per day. Market-implied odds reflect these near-term barriers despite the policy catalyst, with resolution hinging on congressional funding, technical approvals, and any follow-on releases or deals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
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December 31
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September 30
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December 31
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On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. policy moves, including a Trump administration deal securing majority stakes in Venezuelan fields holding 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, have driven trader focus on potential SPR replenishment amid ongoing drawdowns. The reserve stood at 286.6 million barrels (40.1% of 714 million capacity) as of September 2, 2026, following releases tied to supply disruptions. President Trump stated Venezuelan crude would enable “topping out” shortly, but Venezuelan extra-heavy sour oil conflicts with SPR storage specifications, as Energy Department analyses have noted prohibitive costs and operational issues for blending or infrastructure upgrades. Production ramp-up faces infrastructure and investment hurdles, with current Venezuelan output around 1.25 million barrels per day. Market-implied odds reflect these near-term barriers despite the policy catalyst, with resolution hinging on congressional funding, technical approvals, and any follow-on releases or deals.
On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. policy moves, including a Trump administration deal securing majority stakes in Venezuelan fields holding 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, have driven trader focus on potential SPR replenishment amid ongoing drawdowns. The reserve stood at 286.6 million barrels (40.1% of 714 million capacity) as of September 2, 2026, following releases tied to supply disruptions. President Trump stated Venezuelan crude would enable “topping out” shortly, but Venezuelan extra-heavy sour oil conflicts with SPR storage specifications, as Energy Department analyses have noted prohibitive costs and operational issues for blending or infrastructure upgrades. Production ramp-up faces infrastructure and investment hurdles, with current Venezuelan output around 1.25 million barrels per day. Market-implied odds reflect these near-term barriers despite the policy catalyst, with resolution hinging on congressional funding, technical approvals, and any follow-on releases or deals.
On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify.
The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. policy moves, including a Trump administration deal securing majority stakes in Venezuelan fields holding 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, have driven trader focus on potential SPR replenishment amid ongoing drawdowns. The reserve stood at 286.6 million barrels (40.1% of 714 million capacity) as of September 2, 2026, following releases tied to supply disruptions. President Trump stated Venezuelan crude would enable “topping out” shortly, but Venezuelan extra-heavy sour oil conflicts with SPR storage specifications, as Energy Department analyses have noted prohibitive costs and operational issues for blending or infrastructure upgrades. Production ramp-up faces infrastructure and investment hurdles, with current Venezuelan output around 1.25 million barrels per day. Market-implied odds reflect these near-term barriers despite the policy catalyst, with resolution hinging on congressional funding, technical approvals, and any follow-on releases or deals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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