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icon for Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 44%

Eric Girard 43%

Julie Tourangeau 35%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin 24%

Polymarket
NEW

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 44%

Eric Girard 43%

Julie Tourangeau 35%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin 24%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Marie-Claude Sarrazin

Marie-Claude Sarrazin

$20 Vol.

44%

icon for Eric Girard

Eric Girard

$20 Vol.

43%

icon for Julie Tourangeau

Julie Tourangeau

$62 Vol.

25%

icon for Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

$88 Vol.

24%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The Groulx riding in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election remains a near toss-up on prediction markets, with incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA Eric Girard and Parti Québécois challenger Marie-Claude Sarrazin trading at nearly identical prices around 43-44%. Sarrazin’s late-August nomination has sharpened focus on fiscal critiques of the CAQ government in this suburban Montreal riding, where recent 338Canada projections show CAQ support near 39% against PQ at 30%. Vote fragmentation among Liberal candidate Julie Tourangeau and Québec solidaire’s Marie-Noëlle Aubertin further compresses the margins. Traders see limited separation until clearer signals emerge from the final weeks of campaigning and any shifts in provincial polling averages ahead of election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$190
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The Groulx riding in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election remains a near toss-up on prediction markets, with incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA Eric Girard and Parti Québécois challenger Marie-Claude Sarrazin trading at nearly identical prices around 43-44%. Sarrazin’s late-August nomination has sharpened focus on fiscal critiques of the CAQ government in this suburban Montreal riding, where recent 338Canada projections show CAQ support near 39% against PQ at 30%. Vote fragmentation among Liberal candidate Julie Tourangeau and Québec solidaire’s Marie-Noëlle Aubertin further compresses the margins. Traders see limited separation until clearer signals emerge from the final weeks of campaigning and any shifts in provincial polling averages ahead of election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$190
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 44%, followed by "Eric Girard" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Girard" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.