Official preliminary results from Russia's Central Election Commission place United Russia at roughly 57.8% of the party-list vote in the September 18-20 State Duma election, aligning closely with the dominant 55-60% market outcome. This exceeds the party's 49.8% share from 2021 amid record turnout near 59%, sustained administrative mobilization, exclusion of non-systemic opposition parties, and wartime framing that emphasized national unity. The party's strong performance in single-mandate districts further reinforces its path to a constitutional majority of seats. Final certification expected by early October could still shift margins modestly through remaining counts or procedural adjustments, while any disputes over electronic voting or regional tallies represent the primary variables that might alter the precise band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55-60% 99.6%
60%+ <1%
50-55% <1%
<40% <1%
$82,271 Vol.
$82,271 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
<1%
40-45%
<1%
45-50%
<1%
50-55%
<1%
55-60%
100%
60%+
<1%
55-60% 99.6%
60%+ <1%
50-55% <1%
<40% <1%
$82,271 Vol.
$82,271 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
$146 Vol.
<1%
40-45%
$578 Vol.
<1%
45-50%
$7,453 Vol.
<1%
50-55%
$10,916 Vol.
<1%
55-60%
$30,597 Vol.
100%
60%+
$32,582 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Official preliminary results from Russia's Central Election Commission place United Russia at roughly 57.8% of the party-list vote in the September 18-20 State Duma election, aligning closely with the dominant 55-60% market outcome. This exceeds the party's 49.8% share from 2021 amid record turnout near 59%, sustained administrative mobilization, exclusion of non-systemic opposition parties, and wartime framing that emphasized national unity. The party's strong performance in single-mandate districts further reinforces its path to a constitutional majority of seats. Final certification expected by early October could still shift margins modestly through remaining counts or procedural adjustments, while any disputes over electronic voting or regional tallies represent the primary variables that might alter the precise band.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$82,271End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Official preliminary results from Russia's Central Election Commission place United Russia at roughly 57.8% of the party-list vote in the September 18-20 State Duma election, aligning closely with the dominant 55-60% market outcome. This exceeds the party's 49.8% share from 2021 amid record turnout near 59%, sustained administrative mobilization, exclusion of non-systemic opposition parties, and wartime framing that emphasized national unity. The party's strong performance in single-mandate districts further reinforces its path to a constitutional majority of seats. Final certification expected by early October could still shift margins modestly through remaining counts or procedural adjustments, while any disputes over electronic voting or regional tallies represent the primary variables that might alter the precise band.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$82,271End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official preliminary results from Russia's Central Election Commission place United Russia at roughly 57.8% of the party-list vote in the September 18-20 State Duma election, aligning closely with the dominant 55-60% market outcome. This exceeds the party's 49.8% share from 2021 amid record turnout near 59%, sustained administrative mobilization, exclusion of non-systemic opposition parties, and wartime framing that emphasized national unity. The party's strong performance in single-mandate districts further reinforces its path to a constitutional majority of seats. Final certification expected by early October could still shift margins modestly through remaining counts or procedural adjustments, while any disputes over electronic voting or regional tallies represent the primary variables that might alter the precise band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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